The Super Bowl is the biggest betting event of the year, and there have never been more options for betting (or trading) on the Big Game than in 2026. With all of the talk around pricing differences across prediction markets and sportsbooks, I decided to do a little digging myself as I was dialing up some wagers for Seahawks vs. Patriots.
I chose four platforms that represent current major buckets of regulated options: Kalshi (the biggest U.S. platform), DraftKings Predictions (major sportsbook/DFS brand), OG (a new prediction market entrant powered by Crypto.com), and FanDuel Sportsbook (traditional sportsbook known for props and parlay depth). Notably, DraftKings Predictions added markets from Crypto.com two days before Super Bowl, adding to its markets from CME Group.
For markets to compare, I stuck with popular ones that I like to trade on myself — moneylines, spreads, game totals, anytime touchdowns, MVP, and a couple of multi-leg combos. They are by no means inclusive of all the apps or all the markets available. For each market, I pulled Super Bowl odds from all four apps within five minutes of each other. But these are all just odds snapshots in a particular moment, and for one singular game, during the hours leading up to kickoff. Odds and pricing fluctuates on all platforms, especially closer to and during the actual contest. The structural patterns, though, could be more lasting and worth paying attention to.
I also left out novelty props. I’m not a big halftime or novelty props trader myself, and those who are probably already know where to find them (the answer is probably Kalshi, or Polymarket if you’re outside the U.S.).
And an important disclaimer: This is not a picks article and none of this should be misconstrued as betting advice.
Key takeaways in comparing Super Bowl odds
No single platform consistently wins on pricing. FanDuel had the best odds for parlays (AKA combos). Kalshi had the best player rushing prop odds. DraftKings Predictions had the best moneyline price. OG had the best spread line. If you’re optimizing for value on a specific bet, the lesson is that you need to shop across platforms.
Prediction markets converge on each other but diverge from the sportsbook. Kalshi, DraftKings Predictions, and OG generally arrive at similar prices, especially on MVP and anytime TD markets where all three were nearly identical. The real pricing gap is between the prediction market cluster and FanDuel.
The divergence grows on longshots. On favorites, the difference might be a dollar or two on a $10 bet (more significant as you scale up). On longshots like Kenneth Walker III for MVP, it’s $16. Bettors chasing big payouts on low-probability events will benefit the most from shopping around.
Parlay offerings vary widely. One of the biggest differentiators in markets available is around parlays or “combos.” OG doesn’t offer combos and DK Predictions only has preset ones (and often with worse odds). Kalshi and FanDuel have the most depth and flexibility for combining picks. Needless to say, the best odds don’t help if the bet you want doesn’t exist on that platform.
Prediction markets vs. sportsbooks
Quick primer on what we’re comparing. Kalshi, DraftKings Predictions, and OG are prediction market platforms — they use order book mechanics where users trade contracts against each other. Prices are displayed in cents or percentages representing implied probability. FanDuel Sportsbook is a traditional sportsbook where you bet against the house, with prices displayed in American odds. Most prediction markets now also have the option to change the view to American odds as well; otherwise they are listed as prices between $0.01 and $0.99.
That distinction drives most of the pricing differences below.
Moneyline, spread and game total odds compared
Let’s start with the core game lines, the bets most people are making.
New England Patriots moneyline:
| Platform | Odds | $10 payout |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +189 | $28.93 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +203 | $30.30 |
| OG | +185 | $28.50 |
| FanDuel Sportsbook | +200 | $30.00 |
DraftKings Predictions edged out the field at +203. The prediction markets didn’t cluster together the way you might expect. Kalshi and OG came in tighter at +189 and +185, while DK Predictions ran closer to the sportsbook line.
Seahawks -4.5 spread:
| Platform | Odds | $10 payout |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -116 | $18.60 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -122 | $18.20 |
| OG | -108 | $19.23 |
| FanDuel Sportsbook | -118 | $18.47 |
OG offered the best value here at -108, paying $19.23 versus $18.20–$18.60 elsewhere. A note on spread availability: DraftKings Predictions’ primary line was actually -5.5, not -4.5. Kalshi, OG and FanDuel all offer alternative lines on spread and over/under totals; I did not find them at DK Predictions.
Over 45.5 total points:
| Platform | Odds | $10 payout |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -107 | $19.31 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +100 | $20.00 |
| OG | +100 | $20.00 |
| FanDuel Sportsbook | -105 | $19.52 |
DK Predictions and OG both priced the over at dead even money (+100), paying $20 on $10. Kalshi and FanDuel both shaded it slightly to the favorite side. All four platforms agreed on 45.5 as the primary number, though Kalshi, OG and FanDuel offer alternative totals (43.5, 46.5, etc.).
Combos and parlays
This is where platforms diverge drastically on offerings and pricing/odds, especially as you climb the odds ladder.
SEA combo (Walker TD + JSN TD + Seahawks ML):
| Platform | Odds | $10 payout |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +260 | $36.00 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +270 | $37.00 |
| OG | N/A | — |
| FanDuel Sportsbook | +284 | $38.40 |
NE combo (Drake Maye TD + Stefon Diggs TD + Patriots ML):
| Platform | Odds | $10 payout |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2430 | $253.00 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1900 | $200.00 |
| OG | N/A | — |
| FanDuel Sportsbook | +2464 | $256.47 |
OG doesn’t offer combos at all. DraftKings Predictions combos are pre-built — you can’t construct your own same-game parlay the way you can on Kalshi or FanDuel. That inflexibility shows up in the NE combo pricing: DK Predictions pays $200 versus $253 on Kalshi and $256 on FanDuel, a $53–56 gap on the same $10 bet.
FanDuel, the traditional sportsbook, offered the best combo pricing in both cases. That’s worth noting for anyone who assumed prediction markets always have better odds. Note, again, these are just some hand-picked markets, not necessarily representative of all parlays/combos.
Anytime touchdown scorer odds
I pulled TD odds for six players across the spectrum. This is where the three prediction markets really start to converge.
Kenneth Walker III (favorite): Kalshi, DK Predictions, and OG all priced him at -170 ($15.87 on $10). FanDuel came in shorter at -185 ($15.41). This seems to be a fairly standard pattern: the sportsbook takes a bigger cut on the chalk.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (biggest split): The most notable divergence in the entire comparison. Kalshi priced JSN as a TD favorite at -113 while DK Predictions and OG both had him at even money (+100). FanDuel split the difference at -105. Same player, same market, three different odds pricing.
Drake Maye (QB longshot): DK Predictions and OG offered the best line at +317 ($41.70). Kalshi and FanDuel both sat at +300 ($40.00). I still bet on this at Kalshi (reminder: this is not betting advice).
Austin Hooper (deep longshot): All four platforms nearly identical, +809 across prediction markets, +800 on FanDuel. At this depth, the pricing gap between platform types narrows.
Sam Darnold (coverage gap): Only available on Kalshi (+614, $71.43) and FanDuel (+900, $100). DK Predictions and OG don’t list it. FanDuel pays 40% more on the same investment.
FanDuel’s depth advantage is significant here: 30+ players with individual pricing including first TD and 2+ TD sub-markets, all listed with odds for each in a neat, skimmable matrix. Kalshi’s depth approaches FanDuel’s but the interface is much less user-friendly for these types of picks.
Super Bowl MVP
This market produced the tightest prediction market clustering and the clearest separation from the sportsbook.
| Player | Kalshi | DK Predictions | OG | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | +122 | +127 | +127 | +115 |
| Drake Maye | +270 | +270 | +270 | +230 |
| Kenneth Walker III | +1011 | +1011 | +1011 | +850 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | +3233 | +3233 | +3233 | +3000 |
| Stefon Diggs | +4900 | +4900 | +4900 | +4500 |
The prediction markets are essentially identical — same odds across the board. FanDuel consistently prices shorterd for Super Bowl MVP markets. On Walker, prediction markets all pay $111 on $10 versus $95 on FanDuel, a 17% difference.
One exception: Jaxon Smith-Njigba for MVP actually pays better on FanDuel (+550, $65) than on any prediction market (+525, $62.50).
DK Predictions showed structural quirks here: many mid-tier players bucketed at exactly +525 or +9900, suggesting preset tiers rather than true market-driven pricing. FanDuel individually priced 40+ candidates from +115 to +60000.
So which platform has the best odds?
The narrative that prediction markets always offer better odds than sportsbooks is too simple. On this Super Bowl, it depended entirely on the specific bet. Prediction markets had clear edges on favorites and mid-range player props. FanDuel had better combos, deeper player coverage, and occasionally better longshot pricing.
The most consistent finding: shop across platforms. Many markets I compared had a different “best value” winner. If you’re only using one app, you could be leaving money on the table somewhere.
So, where am I betting the Super Bowl? I’m currently traveling abroad in Aruba, so Kalshi gets all my action. Otherwise, it would probably be a mix of Kalshi and FanDuel, just to keep things simple; but that’s just me. (Not betting advice.)
