Fed Rate Archives

Prediction markets gain Fed attention as economists weigh their value alongside traditional forecasts

Industry

Federal Reserve Study Finds Kalshi Markets Rival Traditional Economic Forecast Tools

Fed economists find Kalshi’s macro markets to be helpful complementary real-time forecasting tools, as CEPR research highlights pricing bias concerns that require careful...

Mike Breen

February 19, 2026

Finance & Earnings

Trump Taps Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair as Markets React

Warsh was trading at 31% to be the next Fed chair nominee before spiking Thursday evening. What would his confirmation mean for monetary policy and interest...

Valerie Cross

January 30, 2026

Fed rate decision in December favored Polymarket and Kalshi

Industry

$65M+ on Prediction Markets Backed the December Rate Cut

Over $65M poured into Kalshi and Polymarket as traders backed a December rate cut with near certainty. The Fed delivered its third consecutive drop, matching prediction-market...

Jason Brow

December 10, 2025

$35 million in open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket

Finance & Earnings

Will the Fed Cut Rates? 94% Say Yes with $35 Million on the Line

Polymarket and Kalshi show near-unanimous consensus ahead of Wednesday's decision, with $14 million traded in the past 24...

Cheryle Shepstone

December 8, 2025

Finance & Earnings

Fed Cuts Rates Again as Powell Keeps Markets Guessing; Bitcoin Dips 2%

The US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates today by 0.25%, bringing them down to 3.75% to 4%. The decision wasn’t unanimous, with 10 members voting in favor and two voting...

Alejandro Miguel

October 29, 2025