Prediction Markets

Prediction markets have evolved from niche TradFi experiments into full-fledged crypto assets. Regulated exchanges like Kalshi coexist with decentralized alternatives such as Polymarket, letting traders express market views through blockchain-settled yes/no contracts.

Kalshi vs Polymarket Live Volume Tracker

We track how regulated and decentralized prediction markets are performing across volume, activity, and open interest on a daily basis. Here’s how Kalshi and Polymarket stacked up in the latest data.

How event contracts and peer-to-peer crypto betting works

Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket provide diverse market options for traders to choose from, such as: 

• What will the fed funds rate be in May? 
• Who will be the Democratic nominee in 2028?
• Which team will win the pro football championship? 

The pricing of contracts can be viewed as the market’s collective “best guess” on the likelihood of an event outcome. For example, if a contract is priced at $0.80 on the yes side and $0.20 for no, we can interpret that as an 80% chance of the outcome occurring versus a 20% likelihood of it not happening. 

As opposed to traditional betting, a prediction market operates more like a financial exchange. The platforms are subject to different regulatory frameworks than traditional gambling sites as a result. However, the increased popularity has led to more scrutiny and ongoing legal questions that have yet to be resolved. 

Most popular markets

You can trade on a wide range of real-world events on prediction market platforms. Contracts are available on outcomes in a variety of markets, including: 

• Sports: Game results, championships, build combo trades
• Politics: Elections, candidate nominations, legislative outcomes
• Economics: Central bank rates, inflation, indicators
• Crypto: Cryptocurrency prices, market events
• Culture: Award shows, celebrity news, viral trends
• Climate: Temperature records, storm predictions
• Companies & Financials: Corporate achievements, stock market trends, index prices
• Tech & Science: Tech adoption milestones, scientific breakthroughs
• Health & World: Health and wellness issues, global news, and developments  
• Mentions: Predictions on words and phrases used by public figures

In terms of overall coverage, Kalshi and Polymarket provide the broadest range of options. Crypto.com is currently limited to sports, PredictIt focuses on politics, while other niche platforms have yet to capture a good deal of mainstream attention. Some platforms allow users to propose new markets, while others curate their offerings centrally. 

In terms of overall usage, Polymarket leads in global web traffic, while Kalshi is tops among US-regulated options. Beyond the trading aspect, prediction markets are often cited for their forecast accuracy. The platforms essentially aggregate the opinions of traders, offering a “wisdom of the crowds’ look at the probability of an event or outcome happening. 

Prediction market apps getting ready for launch

Kalshi and Polymarket are the big names, but FanDuel and DraftKings are preparing to enter the prediction-markets arena in 2025. FanDuel has announced plans to debut a prediction platform tied to its Flutter Entertainment infrastructure, testing small-scale markets around politics, finance, and entertainment before expanding into sports outcomes. DraftKings has reportedly been building internal tools for event-based trading and has announced that the company will launch a DraftKings Predictions app before the end of 2025.

How does pricing work on contracts?

Prediction market contracts are binary options that pay out a fixed amount. It’s typically set at $1 if the event occurs, and $0 if it does not. Before the contract settles, prices will fluctuate between those ranges as traders enter and exit positions. 

When viewing a contract offering on a prediction market platform, the pricing reflects the market’s collective estimate of the probability that the event will happen. Consider the following example:

• Contract: “Will the Fed raise interest rates in May?” 
• Pricing: $0.70 for “Yes” and $0.32 for “No.”
• Implication: The market implies a 70% chance of a rate hike and a 32% chance it won’t happen.

As you’ll notice, the pricing doesn’t exactly equal $1, while the implied probability is greater than 100%. Small differences such as these are common and often reflect the spread between bid and ask pricing or trading fees. Markets with higher liquidity tend to have more stable prices and tighter spreads, while wider price swings can happen in less active contracts. 

While contracts remain open, prices will continue to move as traders react to new information and shifting sentiment, providing a real-time snapshot of the overall market sentiment. At settlement, the resolution for a correct contract call is $1, while the other side will drop to $0.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket fee comparison

Trading on prediction market platforms comes with a range of fees and costs that can impact your overall returns. The table below has a breakdown of the main fees you’ll encounter on Kalshi and Polymarket. 

Kalshi’s trading fee is variable and depends on the contract price. For 100 contracts, it can be as low as $0.07 and up to $1.74. There are no settlement fees to worry about. Meanwhile, Polymarket does not charge any trading or settlement fees. 

To illustrate the difference, assume that you’re buying 100 contracts at $0.55 on either platform. At Kalshi, this price point triggers the maximum fee for 100 contracts of $1.74, while Polymarket charges $0. You’d be in for a total of $56.74 at the former, and $55 at the latter.  

If you make the right call, the contract settles at $1 in both spots. At Kalshi, you’ll get back $100, less your fee of $1.74, for a total of $98.26. Polymarket will return an even $100 since there are no fees attached. 

Beyond trading and settlement, be sure to consider the deposit and withdrawal fees that are outlined above. Traders should also be aware of potential “hidden costs” like bid-ask spreads, and the potential challenges of exiting positions in less liquid markets.

Full List of Prediction Markets October 2025

Profit potential for betting on predictions

Prediction markets offer opportunities for traders to profit by buying and selling contracts. In its simplest form, the goal is to make the correct calls so your contracts settle at full value. Traders can also aim to “buy low and sell high.”

Strategies for doing just that include looking for mispriced outcomes and acting before the rest of the market catches on. While the potential for returns is real, profits aren’t guaranteed. Market efficiency, liquidity, and timing all play a big role in shaping your results. 

How much can you make by buying a low-priced contract?

Buying low-priced contracts can be enticing due to the potential for big returns. Naturally, there’s plenty of risk here. The contract is priced low for a reason, namely that the chances of that outcome happening aren’t great. 

Let’s consider the following fictitious example for an NBA Playoff game in which there’s a clear favorite to win, at least as far as the market is concerned. 

• Underdog contract price: $0.10 (10% chance)
• Quantity: You buy 100 contracts for a total of $10. 
• Kalshi trading fee: $0.63 (for 100 contracts at this price point)
• Total upfront cost: $10 + $0.63 = $10.63
• Outcome: Underdog wins; contracts settle at $1 each
• Payout: 100 × $1 = $100
• Net profit: $100 – $10.63 = $89.37

In this case, a small investment yields a large return if the prediction is correct. Seeking out low-priced contracts with realistic profit potential can be part of a well-rounded trading approach, but remember to account for the increased risks of trading less-likely outcomes.  

What happens if you sell your contract before the event?

Prediction markets aren’t just about holding contracts to settlement. You can also sell your position before the event concludes if the odds move in your favor. This is especially common in political markets, where news cycles and polling shifts can cause prices to swing rapidly.

Consider the following as an example: “Will Candidate X win the election?”

• Polymarket contract price: $0.45 (45% chance)..
• Quantity: You buy 50 contracts for a total of $22.50.
• New developments and polling substantially boosts Candidate X’s chances. 
• The contract price rises to $0.70.
• You decide to sell all 50 contracts at $0.70 each for a total of $35
• Polymarket trading fee: $0 (no trading fee; only a withdrawal fee applies if you cash out)
• Net profit: $35 – $22.50 = $12.50
• If you withdraw your USDC, a 1.5% withdrawal fee applies: $35 × 0.015 = $0.53

By selling before the event, you lock in your gains and avoid the uncertainty of the final outcome. This approach can be especially useful when you think the market has overreacted or you want to cash out and take your profit after a favorable news development. 

Can you profit by betting ‘No’ on an event?

Prediction markets also allow you to profit by betting against an outcome happening. This is where you would buy the “No” side of the equation when you anticipate that the contract will ultimately resolve to that end result. 

Consider the following example: “Will U.S. inflation exceed 4% this quarter?”

• Kalshi “No” contract price: $0.60 (60% chance).
• Quantity: You buy 75 contracts for a total of $45. 
• Kalshi trading fee: $1.50 (at $0.02 per contract for this price point)
• Total upfront cost: $45 + $1.50 = $46.50
• If inflation comes in below 4%, each contract settles at $1
• Payout: 75 × $1 = $75
• Net profit: $75 – $46.50 = $28.50

Taking the “No” side can be a valuable strategy when you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of an event. Regardless of which outcome you choose, stick to your comfort level for both contract pricing and the total amount of your trades.   

Understanding the math of prediction market contracts

Prediction market contract pricing is generally straightforward. You can view an available market and quickly determine the implied probability of an event happening, at least as far as the overall market sentiment is concerned. 

That said, the actual trading of contracts takes a little more doing on the calculation front. You can use the below formulas and examples as a cheat sheet to help gain even more of a comfort level with prediction market trading. 

How to calculate the number of contracts you can buy

Formula: Number of Contracts = (Available Capital) ÷ (Contract Price + Fees)

Example:

• You want to trade $50. 
• Each contract you’re interested in costs $0.25.
• Kalshi fee: $0.02 per contract at this price point.
• Calculation: $50 ÷ ($0.25 + $0.02) ≈ 192 contracts

Estimating potential profit and loss

Formula: Profit = (Sell Price – Buy Price) × Number of Contracts – Fees

Example:

• You buy 100 contracts at $0.30 and sell at $0.60.
• Profit = ($0.60 – $0.30) × 100 = $30
• Kalshi fee: $1.68 (for 100 contracts at $0.60)
• Net profit = $30 – $1.68 = $28.32

Finding your break-even price

Formula: Break-even Price = (Buy Price + Total Fees) ÷ Number of Contracts

Example:

• You buy 50 contracts at $0.40, for a total of $20. 
• Total fees if you sold at the same price: $1 ($0.02 per contract). 
• Break-even = ($20 + $1) ÷ 50 = $0.42 per contract
• You need to sell above $0.42 to make a profit.

By taking the time to understand these quick calculations, you could spot appealing opportunities that much quicker. As an added benefit, you’ll be better equipped to manage risk and make more informed trades. 

Risks to consider when trading in prediction markets

Trading in prediction markets can be entertaining and potentially profitable, but it’s not devoid of risk. Understanding the potential pitfalls can help you mitigate unnecessary mistakes and ultimately make more informed decisions. Key risks to consider include: 

• Unexpected outcomes: There’s always the potential for a complete loss of your stake, even when the odds seem overwhelmingly in your favor.
• Low liquidity: Certain markets attract a limited amount of volume, which can make it difficult to buy or sell contracts at fair prices.
• Platform issues: While top platforms tend to operate without lengthy interruptions, there are simply no guarantees when it comes to security or technical glitches. 
• Regulatory environment: Prediction markets are soaring in popularity and readily accessible, but are also subject to developments from ongoing legal challenges. 
• Distorted prices: Biases, groupthink, manipulation, and misinformation could all impact contract pricing in both high- and low-volume markets.   

If you trade in prediction markets, there is risk. However, you can take steps to help manage it better. At the top of the list, you should only trade with money that you can afford to lose. Nothing is guaranteed with trading, no matter what the odds may suggest. 

Next, stay informed about what’s happening. Knowing what’s going on with the regulatory front can help you make better decisions on where to park your funds. Lastly, stick to what you know and don’t blindly chase volume. After all, the herd isn’t always correct.  

About The Author

Cheryle Shepstone

With 20 years of experience leading content, marketing, and operation teams across multiple verticals, Cheryle builds products people actually use and trust. At DeFiRate, Cheryle draws on deep audience insight to deliver clear analysis and practical tools to help readers make informed decisions.

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