Home | Prediction Markets

Prediction Market Volume Tracker

Our live dashboard tracks the prediction market landscape in real-time, comparing Kalshi and Polymarket across the metrics that matter. Track daily, weekly and YTD volume across individual contracts. This includes active markets, transaction counts, and category-level breakdowns. The top two prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket posted a combined $17.9B in February notional volume, representing a nearly 4% MoM increase for both platforms as Polymarket continues to close the weekly volume gap. If you are looking for an exchange, see our list of prediction markets here.

Prediction markets are a real-time signal for everything from Fed decisions to election outcomes. Whether you’re comparing Kalshi vs. Polymarket for arbitrage opportunities or tracking which platform dominates specific categories, this is your central hub.

Live Data
Weekly Notional Volume Total USD value of contracts traded during the last complete calendar week.
$5.1B
K Kalshi
$2.7B (53%)
P Polymarket
$2.4B (47%)
U Polymarket US
$5.9M (0%)
Active Markets Number of prediction markets currently open for trading on each platform.
426,129
K Kalshi
391,362 (92%)
P Polymarket
34,337 (8%)
U Polymarket US
430 (0%)
Weekly Transactions Total number of trades executed during the last complete calendar week.
43,351,262
K Kalshi
18,726,198 (43%)
P Polymarket
24,625,064 (57%)
U Polymarket US
— (—)
Open Interest Total USD value of unsettled contracts currently held by traders.
$808.2M
K Kalshi
$406.3M (50%)
P Polymarket
$400.3M (50%)
U Polymarket US
$1.6M (0%)
Last updated: March 6, 2026 at 9:40 PM PST

Kalshi
CFTC Regulated
Volume (rolling)
24H $172.3M -27.7%
7D $1.5B -12.6%
30D $6.6B +37.9%
Top Categories (24h)
1 ⚽ Sports $117.6M
2 ₿ Crypto $16.4M
3 📊 Economics $2.5M
Top Markets (24h)
1
Los Angeles L at Denver
⚽ Sports $6.0M
2
Miami at Charlotte
⚽ Sports $4.2M
3
Chicago at Phoenix
⚽ Sports $3.8M
Polymarket
Decentralized Platform
Volume (rolling)
24H $374.6M +10.0%
7D $2.3B +12.9%
30D $8.2B +12.8%
Top Categories (24h)
1 ⚽ Sports $160.3M
2 📦 Misc $66.6M
3 🏛️ Politics $50.4M
Top Markets (24h)
1
English Premier League Winner
⚽ Sports $32.3M
2
La Liga Winner
⚽ Sports $22.3M
3
Fed decision in March?
📊 Economics $18.1M

Top Markets by Volume

Highest trading activity across platforms

1
English Premier League Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Arsenal 82%
$32.3M
$2.6M
May 26
Active
1

English Premier League Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Arsenal 82%
Manchester City 19%
Chelsea 1%
Liverpool 1%
Manchester United 1%
Aston Villa 1%
Fulham 1%
Sunderland 1%
Brentford 1%
Everton 1%
Bournemouth 1%
Volume
$32.3M
Open Int.
$2.6M
Ends
May 26
2
La Liga Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Barcelona 77%
$22.3M
$756.3K
May 29
Active
2

La Liga Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Barcelona 77%
Real Madrid 23%
Atletico Madrid 1%
Athletic Bilbao 1%
Villarreal 1%
Betis 1%
Espanyol 1%
Valencia 1%
Celta Vigo 1%
Osasuna 1%
Real Sociedad 1%
Getafe 1%
Sevilla 1%
Girona 1%
Rayo Vallecano 1%
Volume
$22.3M
Open Int.
$756.3K
Ends
May 29
3
Fed decision in March?
Polymarket 📊 Economics
No 98%
$18.1M
$20.8M
Mar 17
Active
3

Fed decision in March?

Polymarket
📊 Economics Active
No 98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Volume
$18.1M
Open Int.
$20.8M
Ends
Mar 17
4
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Real Madrid CF Outcome
$12.2M
$0
Mar 6
Closed
4

RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Real Madrid CF
Volume $12.2M
5
2026 NBA Champion
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder 37%
$6.9M
$1.7M
Jun 30
Active
5

2026 NBA Champion

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Oklahoma City Thunder 37%
Denver Nuggets 12%
San Antonio Spurs 11%
Boston Celtics 9%
Detroit Pistons 6%
Cleveland Cavaliers 6%
New York Knicks 5%
Minnesota Timberwolves 3%
Houston Rockets 3%
Charlotte Hornets 2%
Los Angeles Lakers 2%
Indiana Pacers 1%
Atlanta Hawks 1%
Dallas Mavericks 1%
Los Angeles Clippers 1%
Brooklyn Nets 1%
Miami Heat 1%
New Orleans Pelicans 1%
Chicago Bulls 1%
Memphis Grizzlies 1%
Toronto Raptors 1%
Washington Wizards 1%
Milwaukee Bucks 1%
Utah Jazz 1%
Phoenix Suns 1%
Portland Trail Blazers 1%
Orlando Magic 1%
Sacramento Kings 1%
Philadelphia 76ers 1%
Golden State Warriors 1%
Volume
$6.9M
Open Int.
$1.7M
Ends
Jun 30
6
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Spain 15%
$6.9M
$2.9M
Jul 19
Active
6

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Spain 15%
England 13%
Argentina 12%
France 11%
Brazil 9%
Portugal 7%
Germany 6%
Netherlands 3%
Norway 3%
Japan 2%
Belgium 2%
Morocco 2%
Italy 2%
Colombia 2%
South Alabama 2%
Uzbekistan 1%
South Africa 1%
Saudi Arabia 1%
Qatar 1%
Paraguay 1%
Iran 1%
Canada 1%
Austria 1%
New Zealand 1%
South Korea 1%
Egypt 1%
Jordan 1%
Scotland 1%
Haiti 1%
Senegal 1%
Curaçao 1%
Switzerland 1%
Ivory Coast 1%
Croatia 1%
Australia 1%
Ecuador 1%
Tunisia 1%
Cape Verde 1%
Algeria 1%
Ghana 1%
Mexico 1%
Uruguay 1%
Volume
$6.9M
Open Int.
$2.9M
Ends
Jul 19
7
Los Angeles L at Denver
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Denver Nuggets Outcome
$6.0M
$8.6M
Mar 5
Closed
7

Los Angeles L at Denver

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Denver Nuggets
Volume $6.0M
8
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Gavin Newsom 25%
$5.9M
$1.8M
Nov 6
Active
8

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Gavin Newsom 25%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Kamala Harris 5%
Jon Ossoff 4%
Josh Shapiro 4%
Pete Buttigieg 3%
Mark Kelly 3%
Wes Moore 2%
Rahm Emanuel 2%
Stephen A. Smith 2%
J.B. Pritzker 2%
James Talarico 2%
Gretchen Whitmer 2%
Jon Stewart 2%
Ruben Gallego 2%
Andy Beshear 2%
Tim Walz 1%
Chelsea Clinton 1%
Jasmine Crockett 1%
George Clooney 1%
Cory Booker 1%
Oprah Winfrey 1%
Raphael Warnock 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Roy Cooper 1%
Hillary Clinton 1%
Liz Cheney 1%
John Fetterman 1%
Beto O’Rourke 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Bernie Sanders 1%
Barack Obama 1%
Hunter Biden 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
Jared Polis 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
MrBeast 1%
LeBron James 1%
Chris Murphy 1%
Mark Cuban 1%
Gina Raimondo 1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%
Phil Murphy 1%
Ro Khanna 1%
Volume
$5.9M
Open Int.
$1.8M
Ends
Nov 6
9
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
J.D. Vance 42%
$5.7M
$1.5M
Nov 6
Active
9

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
J.D. Vance 42%
Marco Rubio 18%
Ron DeSantis 3%
Ted Cruz 2%
Donald Trump 2%
Thomas Massie 2%
Ivanka Trump 2%
Donald Trump Jr. 2%
Tucker Carlson 2%
Glenn Youngkin 2%
John Thune 1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders 1%
Steve Bannon 1%
Mike Pence 1%
Tom Brady 1%
Elise Stefanik 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Kristi Noem 1%
Byron Donalds 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Rand Paul 1%
Katie Britt 1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 1%
Brian Kemp 1%
Matt Gaetz 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Erika Kirk 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Josh Hawley 1%
Volume
$5.7M
Open Int.
$1.5M
Ends
Nov 6
10
Iran strikes Israel on...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3 100%
$4.9M
$3.9M
Feb 27
Closed
10

Iran strikes Israel on...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome —
Volume $4.9M
11
Miami at Charlotte
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Miami 99%
$4.2M
$4.3M
Mar 20
Active
11

Miami at Charlotte

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Active
Miami 99%
Charlotte 2%
Volume
$4.2M
Open Int.
$4.3M
Ends
Mar 20
12
Bitcoin above ___ on March 6?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
$68,000 Outcome
$4.1M
$0
Mar 6
Closed
12

Bitcoin above ___ on March 6?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Closed
Outcome $68,000
Volume $4.1M
13
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?
Polymarket 📊 Economics
$90 77%
$3.9M
$3.3M
Mar 30
Active
13

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?

Polymarket
📊 Economics Active
$90 77%
$105 64%
$100 54%
$110 27%
$130 27%
$140 19%
$120 18%
$65 10%
$180 8%
$150 6%
$200 5%
$60 5%
$55 2%
$50 1%
$40 1%
$45 1%
Volume
$3.9M
Open Int.
$3.3M
Ends
Mar 30
14
Chicago at Phoenix
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Chicago Bulls Outcome
$3.8M
$4.3M
Mar 5
Closed
14

Chicago at Phoenix

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Chicago Bulls
Volume $3.8M
15
SSC Napoli vs. Torino FC
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
SSC Napoli Outcome
$3.3M
$0
Mar 6
Closed
15

SSC Napoli vs. Torino FC

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome SSC Napoli
Volume $3.3M
16
Elon Musk # tweets February 27 - March 6, 2026?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
200–219 Outcome
$3.2M
$0
Mar 6
Closed
16

Elon Musk # tweets February 27 - March 6, 2026?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome 200–219
Volume $3.2M
17
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027 82%
$3.1M
$2.3M
Dec 30
Active
17

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027 82%
June 30 82%
March 31 78%
Volume
$3.1M
Open Int.
$2.3M
Ends
Dec 30
18
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
JD Vance 21%
$3.1M
$1.9M
Nov 6
Active
18

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
JD Vance 21%
Gavin Newsom 17%
Marco Rubio 10%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6%
Kamala Harris 3%
Thomas Massie 2%
Jon Ossoff 2%
Donald Trump 2%
Ron DeSantis 2%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 2%
Josh Shapiro 2%
Pete Buttigieg 2%
Andy Beshear 1%
LeBron James 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Stephen Smith 1%
Glenn Youngkin 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
Ro Khanna 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Jamie Dimon 1%
Donald Trump Jr. 1%
James Talarico 1%
Gretchen Whitmer 1%
Tucker Carlson 1%
Wes Moore 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
JB Pritzker 1%
Volume
$3.1M
Open Int.
$1.9M
Ends
Nov 6
19
San Diego at Loyola Marymount
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
San Diego Outcome
$2.8M
$3.1M
Mar 5
Closed
19

San Diego at Loyola Marymount

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome San Diego
Volume $2.8M
20
Next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the 36%
$2.7M
$2.3M
Dec 30
Active
20

Next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the 36%
Will Alireza Arafi be the 20%
the position of Supreme Leader of Iran 8%
No 7%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the 4%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the 4%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the 3%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the 3%
Will Ali Larijani be the 2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be the 1%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the 1%
Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the 1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the 1%
Will Mohsen Araki be the 1%
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be the 1%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be the 1%
Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the 1%
Will Mohammad Khatami be the 1%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be the 1%
Will Mohsen Qomi be the 1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be the 1%
Will Ahmad Khatami be the 1%
Will Mohammad Hadi Ghazanfari Khansari be the 1%
Will Massoud Rajavi be the 1%
Will Maryam Rajavi be the 1%
Will Ali Motahari be the 1%
Will Reza Pirzadeh be the 1%
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the 1%
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be the 1%
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be the 1%
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be the 1%
Will Nasir Hosseini be the 1%
Will Navid Shomali be the 1%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be the 1%
Will Mustafa Hijri be the 1%
Will Saeed Jalili be the 1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be the 1%
Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the 1%
Will Mohammad Yasrebi be the 1%
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be the 1%
Volume
$2.7M
Open Int.
$2.3M
Ends
Dec 30
21
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
June 30 70%
$2.7M
$7.5M
May 30
Active
21

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
June 30 70%
May 31 63%
April 30 48%
March 31 30%
March 15 11%
March 6 1%
Volume
$2.7M
Open Int.
$7.5M
Ends
May 30
22
Charleston Southern at Winthrop
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Winthrop Eagles Outcome
$2.6M
$2.3M
Mar 6
Closed
22

Charleston Southern at Winthrop

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Winthrop Eagles
Volume $2.6M
23
New Orleans at Sacramento
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
New Orleans Pelicans Outcome
$2.3M
$2.7M
Mar 5
Closed
23

New Orleans at Sacramento

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome New Orleans Pelicans
Volume $2.3M
24
Drake at Belmont
Kalshi 🎭 Culture
Drake Outcome
$2.3M
$2.9M
Mar 6
Closed
24

Drake at Belmont

Kalshi
🎭 Culture Closed
Outcome Drake
Volume $2.3M
25
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Aurora Gaming Outcome
$2.3M
$0
Mar 6
Closed
25

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Aurora Gaming
Volume $2.3M
26
Shelton vs Opelka
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Ben Shelton Outcome
$2.1M
$2.1M
Mar 6
Closed
26

Shelton vs Opelka

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Ben Shelton
Volume $2.1M
27
Stetson at Austin Peay
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Austin Peay Outcome
$2.1M
$2.3M
Mar 6
Closed
27

Stetson at Austin Peay

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Austin Peay
Volume $2.1M
28
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
TheMongolz Outcome
$2.1M
$0
Mar 6
Closed
28

Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome TheMongolz
Volume $2.1M
29
Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Real Madrid Outcome
$1.9M
$2.9M
Mar 6
Closed
29

Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Real Madrid
Volume $1.9M
30
Gaston vs Kouame
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Hugo Gaston Outcome
$1.8M
$1.5M
Mar 6
Closed
30

Gaston vs Kouame

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Hugo Gaston
Volume $1.8M
1
US strikes Iran by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
February 28 Outcome
$429.1M
$0
Jun 29
Closed
1

US strikes Iran by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome February 28
Volume $429.1M
2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Feb 28, 2026 Outcome
$118.7M
$0
Feb 27
Closed
2

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome Feb 28, 2026
Volume $118.7M
3
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair Outcome
$77.3M
$0
Dec 30
Closed
3

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair
Volume $77.3M
4
2026 NBA Champion
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder 37%
$62.5M
$943.1K
Jun 30
Active
4

2026 NBA Champion

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Oklahoma City Thunder 37%
Denver Nuggets 12%
San Antonio Spurs 11%
Boston Celtics 9%
Detroit Pistons 6%
Cleveland Cavaliers 6%
New York Knicks 5%
Minnesota Timberwolves 3%
Houston Rockets 3%
Charlotte Hornets 2%
Los Angeles Lakers 2%
Indiana Pacers 1%
Atlanta Hawks 1%
Dallas Mavericks 1%
Los Angeles Clippers 1%
Brooklyn Nets 1%
Miami Heat 1%
New Orleans Pelicans 1%
Chicago Bulls 1%
Memphis Grizzlies 1%
Toronto Raptors 1%
Washington Wizards 1%
Milwaukee Bucks 1%
Utah Jazz 1%
Phoenix Suns 1%
Portland Trail Blazers 1%
Orlando Magic 1%
Sacramento Kings 1%
Philadelphia 76ers 1%
Golden State Warriors 1%
Volume
$62.5M
Open Int.
$943.1K
Ends
Jun 30
5
Fed decision in March?
Polymarket 📊 Economics
No 98%
$62.5M
$20.9M
Mar 17
Active
5

Fed decision in March?

Polymarket
📊 Economics Active
No 98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Volume
$62.5M
Open Int.
$20.9M
Ends
Mar 17
6
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Spain 15%
$50.9M
$3.2M
Jul 19
Active
6

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Spain 15%
England 13%
Argentina 12%
France 11%
Brazil 9%
Portugal 7%
Germany 6%
Netherlands 3%
Norway 3%
Japan 2%
Belgium 2%
Morocco 2%
Italy 2%
Colombia 2%
South Alabama 2%
Uzbekistan 1%
South Africa 1%
Saudi Arabia 1%
Qatar 1%
Paraguay 1%
Iran 1%
Canada 1%
Austria 1%
New Zealand 1%
South Korea 1%
Egypt 1%
Jordan 1%
Scotland 1%
Haiti 1%
Senegal 1%
Curaçao 1%
Switzerland 1%
Ivory Coast 1%
Croatia 1%
Australia 1%
Ecuador 1%
Tunisia 1%
Cape Verde 1%
Algeria 1%
Ghana 1%
Mexico 1%
Uruguay 1%
Volume
$50.9M
Open Int.
$3.2M
Ends
Jul 19
7
English Premier League Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Arsenal 82%
$46.5M
$2.8M
May 26
Active
7

English Premier League Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Arsenal 82%
Manchester City 19%
Chelsea 1%
Liverpool 1%
Manchester United 1%
Aston Villa 1%
Fulham 1%
Sunderland 1%
Brentford 1%
Everton 1%
Bournemouth 1%
Volume
$46.5M
Open Int.
$2.8M
Ends
May 26
8
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Mar 31, 2026 Outcome
$46.4M
$0
Mar 30
Closed
8

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome Mar 31, 2026
Volume $46.4M
9
Elon Musk # tweets February 24 - March 3, 2026?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
200–219 Outcome
$44.9M
$0
Mar 3
Closed
9

Elon Musk # tweets February 24 - March 3, 2026?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome 200–219
Volume $44.9M
10
La Liga Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Barcelona 77%
$44.7M
$860.0K
May 29
Active
10

La Liga Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Barcelona 77%
Real Madrid 23%
Atletico Madrid 1%
Athletic Bilbao 1%
Villarreal 1%
Betis 1%
Espanyol 1%
Valencia 1%
Celta Vigo 1%
Osasuna 1%
Real Sociedad 1%
Getafe 1%
Sevilla 1%
Girona 1%
Rayo Vallecano 1%
Volume
$44.7M
Open Int.
$860.0K
Ends
May 29
11
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Gavin Newsom 25%
$43.4M
$9.3M
Nov 6
Active
11

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Gavin Newsom 25%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Kamala Harris 5%
Jon Ossoff 4%
Josh Shapiro 4%
Pete Buttigieg 3%
Mark Kelly 3%
Wes Moore 2%
Rahm Emanuel 2%
Stephen A. Smith 2%
J.B. Pritzker 2%
James Talarico 2%
Gretchen Whitmer 2%
Jon Stewart 2%
Ruben Gallego 2%
Andy Beshear 2%
Tim Walz 1%
Chelsea Clinton 1%
Jasmine Crockett 1%
George Clooney 1%
Cory Booker 1%
Oprah Winfrey 1%
Raphael Warnock 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Roy Cooper 1%
Hillary Clinton 1%
Liz Cheney 1%
John Fetterman 1%
Beto O’Rourke 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Bernie Sanders 1%
Barack Obama 1%
Hunter Biden 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
Jared Polis 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
MrBeast 1%
LeBron James 1%
Chris Murphy 1%
Mark Cuban 1%
Gina Raimondo 1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%
Phil Murphy 1%
Ro Khanna 1%
Volume
$43.4M
Open Int.
$9.3M
Ends
Nov 6
12
What price will Bitcoin hit in February?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
$60,000 Outcome
$41.0M
$0
Feb 28
Closed
12

What price will Bitcoin hit in February?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Closed
Outcome $60,000
Volume $41.0M
13
US next strikes Iran on...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
February 28 Outcome
$39.8M
$0
Feb 27
Closed
13

US next strikes Iran on...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome February 28
Volume $39.8M
14
Elon Musk # tweets February 27 - March 6, 2026?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
200–219 Outcome
$39.4M
$0
Mar 6
Closed
14

Elon Musk # tweets February 27 - March 6, 2026?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome 200–219
Volume $39.4M
15
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
JD Vance 21%
$22.8M
$28.1M
Nov 6
Active
15

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
JD Vance 21%
Gavin Newsom 17%
Marco Rubio 10%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6%
Kamala Harris 3%
Thomas Massie 2%
Jon Ossoff 2%
Donald Trump 2%
Ron DeSantis 2%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 2%
Josh Shapiro 2%
Pete Buttigieg 2%
Andy Beshear 1%
LeBron James 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Stephen Smith 1%
Glenn Youngkin 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
Ro Khanna 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Jamie Dimon 1%
Donald Trump Jr. 1%
James Talarico 1%
Gretchen Whitmer 1%
Tucker Carlson 1%
Wes Moore 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
JB Pritzker 1%
Volume
$22.8M
Open Int.
$28.1M
Ends
Nov 6
16
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
J.D. Vance 42%
$20.5M
$965.5K
Nov 6
Active
16

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
J.D. Vance 42%
Marco Rubio 18%
Ron DeSantis 3%
Ted Cruz 2%
Donald Trump 2%
Thomas Massie 2%
Ivanka Trump 2%
Donald Trump Jr. 2%
Tucker Carlson 2%
Glenn Youngkin 2%
John Thune 1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders 1%
Steve Bannon 1%
Mike Pence 1%
Tom Brady 1%
Elise Stefanik 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Kristi Noem 1%
Byron Donalds 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Rand Paul 1%
Katie Britt 1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 1%
Brian Kemp 1%
Matt Gaetz 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Erika Kirk 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Josh Hawley 1%
Volume
$20.5M
Open Int.
$965.5K
Ends
Nov 6
17
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027 82%
$19.9M
$2.3M
Dec 30
Active
17

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027 82%
June 30 82%
March 31 78%
Volume
$19.9M
Open Int.
$2.3M
Ends
Dec 30
18
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31 10%
$17.3M
$8.5M
Mar 30
Active
18

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31 10%
Volume
$17.3M
Open Int.
$8.5M
Ends
Mar 30
19
Next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the 36%
$17.1M
$2.4M
Dec 30
Active
19

Next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the 36%
Will Alireza Arafi be the 20%
the position of Supreme Leader of Iran 8%
No 7%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the 4%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the 4%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the 3%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the 3%
Will Ali Larijani be the 2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be the 1%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the 1%
Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the 1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the 1%
Will Mohsen Araki be the 1%
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be the 1%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be the 1%
Will Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi be the 1%
Will Mohammad Khatami be the 1%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be the 1%
Will Mohsen Qomi be the 1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be the 1%
Will Ahmad Khatami be the 1%
Will Mohammad Hadi Ghazanfari Khansari be the 1%
Will Massoud Rajavi be the 1%
Will Maryam Rajavi be the 1%
Will Ali Motahari be the 1%
Will Reza Pirzadeh be the 1%
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the 1%
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be the 1%
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be the 1%
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be the 1%
Will Nasir Hosseini be the 1%
Will Navid Shomali be the 1%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be the 1%
Will Mustafa Hijri be the 1%
Will Saeed Jalili be the 1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be the 1%
Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the 1%
Will Mohammad Yasrebi be the 1%
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be the 1%
Volume
$17.1M
Open Int.
$2.4M
Ends
Dec 30
20
What price will Bitcoin hit in March?
Polymarket 💰 Finance
$75,000 63%
$16.6M
$5.3M
Mar 31
Active
20

What price will Bitcoin hit in March?

Polymarket
💰 Finance Active
$75,000 63%
$65,000 60%
$80,000 33%
$60,000 28%
$85,000 14%
$55,000 14%
$50,000 8%
$90,000 6%
$45,000 4%
$100,000 2%
$95,000 2%
$40,000 2%
$150,000 1%
$110,000 1%
$105,000 1%
$20,000 1%
$35,000 1%
$25,000 1%
$30,000 1%
Volume
$16.6M
Open Int.
$5.3M
Ends
Mar 31
21
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
June 30 70%
$14.2M
$7.3M
Feb 27
Closed
21

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome —
Volume $14.2M
22
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Liverpool FC
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC Outcome
$13.8M
$0
Mar 3
Closed
22

Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Liverpool FC

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
Volume $13.8M
23
Los Angeles L at Denver
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Denver Nuggets Outcome
$12.9M
$0
—
Closed
23

Los Angeles L at Denver

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Denver Nuggets
Volume $12.9M
24
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Real Madrid CF Outcome
$12.7M
$0
Mar 6
Closed
24

RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Real Madrid CF
Volume $12.7M
25
Denver at Oklahoma City
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder Outcome
$12.6M
$0
—
Closed
25

Denver at Oklahoma City

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Oklahoma City Thunder
Volume $12.6M
26
Golden State at Houston
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Golden State Warriors Outcome
$12.6M
$0
—
Closed
26

Golden State at Houston

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Golden State Warriors
Volume $12.6M
27
US next strikes Iran on...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Before March ET Outcome
$12.1M
$0
Mar 30
Closed
27

US next strikes Iran on...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome Before March ET
Volume $12.1M
28
Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Arsenal FC Outcome
$11.9M
$0
Mar 1
Closed
28

Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Arsenal FC
Volume $11.9M
29
The Masters - Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Scottie Scheffler 20%
$11.6M
$131.5K
Apr 12
Active
29

The Masters - Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Scottie Scheffler 20%
Rory McIlroy 10%
Bryson Dechambeau 6%
Jordan Spieth 4%
Tommy Fleetwood 4%
Justin Rose 4%
Ludvig Aberg 4%
Jon Rahm 4%
Xander Schauffele 3%
Collin Morikawa 3%
Viktor Hovland 2%
Robert MacIntyre 2%
Jason Day 2%
Adam Scott 2%
Hideki Matsuyama 2%
Patrick Reed 2%
Shane Lowry 1%
Tyrrell Hatton 1%
Matt Fitzpatrick 1%
Cameron Young 1%
Tom Kim 1%
Sergio Garcia 1%
Billy Horschel 1%
Denny McCarthy 1%
Max Homa 1%
Aaron Rai 1%
Sahith Theegala 1%
Thomas Detry 1%
Tony Finau 1%
Phil Mickelson 1%
Brooks Koepka 1%
Zach Johnson 1%
Davis Thompson 1%
Maverick McNealy 1%
Sungjae Im 1%
Tiger Woods 1%
Bubba Watson 1%
Justin Thomas 1%
Sam Burns 1%
Rasmus Hojgaard 1%
Sepp Straka 1%
Will Zalatoris 1%
Danny Willett 1%
Byeong Hun An 1%
Joaquin Niemann 1%
Min Woo Lee 1%
Russell Henley 1%
Akshay Bhatia 1%
Charl Schwartzel 1%
Brian Harman 1%
Dustin Johnson 1%
Nicolai Hojgaard 1%
Cameron Smith 1%
Wyndham Clark 1%
Corey Conners 1%
Taylor Pendrith 1%
Fred Couples 1%
Keegan Bradley 1%
Patrick Cantlay 1%
Volume
$11.6M
Open Int.
$131.5K
Ends
Apr 12
30
Oklahoma City at New York
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Oklahoma City Outcome
$11.6M
$0
—
Closed
30

Oklahoma City at New York

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Oklahoma City
Volume $11.6M
1
US strikes Iran by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
February 28 Outcome
$516.6M
$0
Jun 29
Closed
1

US strikes Iran by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome February 28
Volume $516.6M
2
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair Outcome
$210.1M
$0
Dec 30
Closed
2

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair
Volume $210.1M
3
Fed decision in March?
Polymarket 📊 Economics
No 98%
$171.9M
$20.8M
Mar 17
Active
3

Fed decision in March?

Polymarket
📊 Economics Active
No 98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting 1%
Volume
$171.9M
Open Int.
$20.8M
Ends
Mar 17
4
Big Game Champion 2026
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Seattle Seahawks Outcome
$162.8M
$0
Feb 8
Closed
4

Big Game Champion 2026

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Seattle Seahawks
Volume $162.8M
5
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Gavin Newsom 25%
$160.5M
$10.6M
Nov 6
Active
5

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Gavin Newsom 25%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Kamala Harris 5%
Jon Ossoff 4%
Josh Shapiro 4%
Pete Buttigieg 3%
Mark Kelly 3%
Wes Moore 2%
Rahm Emanuel 2%
Stephen A. Smith 2%
J.B. Pritzker 2%
James Talarico 2%
Gretchen Whitmer 2%
Jon Stewart 2%
Ruben Gallego 2%
Andy Beshear 2%
Tim Walz 1%
Chelsea Clinton 1%
Jasmine Crockett 1%
George Clooney 1%
Cory Booker 1%
Oprah Winfrey 1%
Raphael Warnock 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Roy Cooper 1%
Hillary Clinton 1%
Liz Cheney 1%
John Fetterman 1%
Beto O’Rourke 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Bernie Sanders 1%
Barack Obama 1%
Hunter Biden 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
Jared Polis 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
MrBeast 1%
LeBron James 1%
Chris Murphy 1%
Mark Cuban 1%
Gina Raimondo 1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%
Phil Murphy 1%
Ro Khanna 1%
Volume
$160.5M
Open Int.
$10.6M
Ends
Nov 6
6
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Spain 15%
$142.2M
$4.6M
Jul 19
Active
6

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Spain 15%
England 13%
Argentina 12%
France 11%
Brazil 9%
Portugal 7%
Germany 6%
Netherlands 3%
Norway 3%
Japan 2%
Belgium 2%
Morocco 2%
Italy 2%
Colombia 2%
South Alabama 2%
Uzbekistan 1%
South Africa 1%
Saudi Arabia 1%
Qatar 1%
Paraguay 1%
Iran 1%
Canada 1%
Austria 1%
New Zealand 1%
South Korea 1%
Egypt 1%
Jordan 1%
Scotland 1%
Haiti 1%
Senegal 1%
Curaçao 1%
Switzerland 1%
Ivory Coast 1%
Croatia 1%
Australia 1%
Ecuador 1%
Tunisia 1%
Cape Verde 1%
Algeria 1%
Ghana 1%
Mexico 1%
Uruguay 1%
Volume
$142.2M
Open Int.
$4.6M
Ends
Jul 19
7
2026 NBA Champion
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder 37%
$130.3M
$1.5M
Jun 30
Active
7

2026 NBA Champion

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Oklahoma City Thunder 37%
Denver Nuggets 12%
San Antonio Spurs 11%
Boston Celtics 9%
Detroit Pistons 6%
Cleveland Cavaliers 6%
New York Knicks 5%
Minnesota Timberwolves 3%
Houston Rockets 3%
Charlotte Hornets 2%
Los Angeles Lakers 2%
Indiana Pacers 1%
Atlanta Hawks 1%
Dallas Mavericks 1%
Los Angeles Clippers 1%
Brooklyn Nets 1%
Miami Heat 1%
New Orleans Pelicans 1%
Chicago Bulls 1%
Memphis Grizzlies 1%
Toronto Raptors 1%
Washington Wizards 1%
Milwaukee Bucks 1%
Utah Jazz 1%
Phoenix Suns 1%
Portland Trail Blazers 1%
Orlando Magic 1%
Sacramento Kings 1%
Philadelphia 76ers 1%
Golden State Warriors 1%
Volume
$130.3M
Open Int.
$1.5M
Ends
Jun 30
8
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Feb 28, 2026 Outcome
$125.3M
$0
Feb 27
Closed
8

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome Feb 28, 2026
Volume $125.3M
9
What price will Bitcoin hit in February?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
$60,000 Outcome
$118.1M
$0
Feb 28
Closed
9

What price will Bitcoin hit in February?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Closed
Outcome $60,000
Volume $118.1M
10
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
J.D. Vance 42%
$99.5M
$1.7M
Nov 6
Active
10

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
J.D. Vance 42%
Marco Rubio 18%
Ron DeSantis 3%
Ted Cruz 2%
Donald Trump 2%
Thomas Massie 2%
Ivanka Trump 2%
Donald Trump Jr. 2%
Tucker Carlson 2%
Glenn Youngkin 2%
John Thune 1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders 1%
Steve Bannon 1%
Mike Pence 1%
Tom Brady 1%
Elise Stefanik 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Kristi Noem 1%
Byron Donalds 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Rand Paul 1%
Katie Britt 1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 1%
Brian Kemp 1%
Matt Gaetz 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Erika Kirk 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Josh Hawley 1%
Volume
$99.5M
Open Int.
$1.7M
Ends
Nov 6
11
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
JD Vance 21%
$94.3M
$25.8M
Nov 6
Active
11

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
JD Vance 21%
Gavin Newsom 17%
Marco Rubio 10%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6%
Kamala Harris 3%
Thomas Massie 2%
Jon Ossoff 2%
Donald Trump 2%
Ron DeSantis 2%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 2%
Josh Shapiro 2%
Pete Buttigieg 2%
Andy Beshear 1%
LeBron James 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Stephen Smith 1%
Glenn Youngkin 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
Ro Khanna 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Jamie Dimon 1%
Donald Trump Jr. 1%
James Talarico 1%
Gretchen Whitmer 1%
Tucker Carlson 1%
Wes Moore 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
JB Pritzker 1%
Volume
$94.3M
Open Int.
$25.8M
Ends
Nov 6
12
Pro Football Champion?
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Seattle Seahawks Outcome
$83.8M
$0
—
Closed
12

Pro Football Champion?

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Seattle Seahawks
Volume $83.8M
13
English Premier League Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Arsenal 82%
$76.9M
$3.1M
May 26
Active
13

English Premier League Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Arsenal 82%
Manchester City 19%
Chelsea 1%
Liverpool 1%
Manchester United 1%
Aston Villa 1%
Fulham 1%
Sunderland 1%
Brentford 1%
Everton 1%
Bournemouth 1%
Volume
$76.9M
Open Int.
$3.1M
Ends
May 26
14
La Liga Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Barcelona 77%
$59.4M
$878.0K
May 29
Active
14

La Liga Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Barcelona 77%
Real Madrid 23%
Atletico Madrid 1%
Athletic Bilbao 1%
Villarreal 1%
Betis 1%
Espanyol 1%
Valencia 1%
Celta Vigo 1%
Osasuna 1%
Real Sociedad 1%
Getafe 1%
Sevilla 1%
Girona 1%
Rayo Vallecano 1%
Volume
$59.4M
Open Int.
$878.0K
Ends
May 29
15
US next strikes Iran on...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
February 28 Outcome
$56.0M
$0
Feb 27
Closed
15

US next strikes Iran on...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome February 28
Volume $56.0M
16
Seattle vs. New England
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Seahawks Outcome
$55.0M
$0
Feb 8
Closed
16

Seattle vs. New England

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Seahawks
Volume $55.0M
17
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Mar 31, 2026 Outcome
$53.3M
$0
Mar 30
Closed
17

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome Mar 31, 2026
Volume $53.3M
18
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Delcy Rodríguez 56%
$51.8M
$29.2K
Dec 30
Active
18

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Delcy Rodríguez 56%
María Corina Machado 19%
Nicolás Maduro 12%
Edmundo González 3%
Richard Grenell 1%
Frank Donovan 1%
Pete Hegseth 1%
Dinorah Figuera 1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón 1%
No 1%
Jorge Rodríguez 1%
Dan Caine 1%
Vladimir Padrino López 1%
Donald Trump 1%
Marco Rubio 1%
Volume
$51.8M
Open Int.
$29.2K
Ends
Dec 30
19
Elon Musk # tweets February 24 - March 3, 2026?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
200–219 Outcome
$46.5M
$0
Mar 3
Closed
19

Elon Musk # tweets February 24 - March 3, 2026?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome 200–219
Volume $46.5M
20
Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
VVD + CDA + D66 Outcome
$42.6M
$0
Oct 30
Closed
20

Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome VVD + CDA + D66
Volume $42.6M
21
Portugal Presidential Election
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
António José Seguro Outcome
$42.5M
$0
Feb 8
Closed
21

Portugal Presidential Election

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome António José Seguro
Volume $42.5M
22
Elon Musk # tweets February 27 - March 6, 2026?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
200–219 Outcome
$41.4M
$0
Mar 6
Closed
22

Elon Musk # tweets February 27 - March 6, 2026?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome 200–219
Volume $41.4M
23
Which crypto company will ZachXBT expose for insider trading?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
Axiom Outcome
$39.7M
$0
Mar 1
Closed
23

Which crypto company will ZachXBT expose for insider trading?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Closed
Outcome Axiom
Volume $39.7M
24
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Polymarket 🎭 Culture
No 96%
$38.1M
$2.0M
Dec 30
Active
24

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Polymarket
🎭 Culture Active
Yes 4%
No 96%
Volume
$38.1M
Open Int.
$2.0M
Ends
Dec 30
25
What price will Ethereum hit in February?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
$2,000 Outcome
$34.6M
$0
Feb 28
Closed
25

What price will Ethereum hit in February?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Closed
Outcome $2,000
Volume $34.6M
26
UEFA Champions League Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Arsenal 28%
$30.6M
$534.7K
May 30
Active
26

UEFA Champions League Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Arsenal 28%
Bayern Munich 16%
Barcelona 14%
Man City 10%
PSG 9%
Liverpool 8%
Real Madrid 6%
Chelsea 3%
Atletico Madrid 3%
Tottenham 2%
Bodo Glimt 2%
Newcastle 2%
Galatasaray 1%
Leverkusen 1%
Atalanta 1%
Sporting 1%
Club Brugge 1%
Volume
$30.6M
Open Int.
$534.7K
Ends
May 30
27
Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
360–379 Outcome
$30.2M
$0
Feb 10
Closed
27

Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome 360–379
Volume $30.2M
28
Which brands will advertise during the Big Game 2026?
Kalshi 🏢 Companies
OpenAI Outcome
$29.0M
$0
—
Closed
28

Which brands will advertise during the Big Game 2026?

Kalshi
🏢 Companies Closed
Outcome OpenAI
Volume $29.0M
29
Denver at Oklahoma City
Kalshi ⚽ Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder Outcome
$25.7M
$0
—
Closed
29

Denver at Oklahoma City

Kalshi
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Oklahoma City Thunder
Volume $25.7M
30
Bad Bunny’s halftime opener?
Kalshi 🎭 Culture
Tití Me Preguntó Outcome
$24.2M
$0
—
Closed
30

Bad Bunny’s halftime opener?

Kalshi
🎭 Culture Closed
Outcome Tití Me Preguntó
Volume $24.2M

Category Breakdown

Compare volume and activity across platforms by category

K

Kalshi Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics14,746$2.3M-26%
Sports582,688$117.6M-26.8%
Crypto2,399$16.4M-37.8%
Economics2,778$2.5M-3.7%
Financials585$275.5K-20.8%
Tech & Science381$86.3K-43.7%
Culture15,450$659.3K-1.9%
Climate2,856$598.3K-8.6%
Misc8,341$428.2K+143.8%
World23,252$836.1K-16.8%
P

Polymarket Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics5,058$50.4M-9.1%
Sports17,187$160.3M+6.3%
Crypto2,049$37.3M-4.6%
Economics915$23.9M+15.3%
Finance1,378$6.5M+0.5%
Tech631$8.5M-8.6%
Culture1,021$4.1M+0.4%
Weather548$3.2M-23.9%
Misc9,640$66.6M+74.9%
Mentions58$152.0K+69.3%
K

Kalshi Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics15,469$41.7M-29.1%
Sports660,163$1.2B-13.8%
Crypto15,686$179.5M-1.7%
Economics1,834$7.0M+0.1%
Financials1,461$2.1M+27.2%
Tech & Science1,597$1.1M-3.5%
Culture16,472$6.9M+4.1%
Climate4,317$8.1M-17.5%
Misc5,745$5.0M+23.9%
World33,514$9.3M+15.5%
P

Polymarket Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics4,897$553.8M+12.6%
Sports16,737$888.2M+12.3%
Crypto3,752$280.9M+8.2%
Economics851$96.2M+77.8%
Finance1,476$33.0M-37.7%
Tech744$63.0M-40.9%
Culture1,213$24.3M+12.9%
Weather1,272$19.7M+22.5%
Misc12,127$309.1M+43.9%
Mentions75$673.9K+21.9%
K

Kalshi Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics43,969$157.2M+29.7%
Sports2,262,225$5.6B+52.4%
Crypto57,713$693.4M+175.7%
Economics4,313$44.2M+90.9%
Financials5,379$9.0M-1.1%
Tech & Science3,753$8.2M+202.9%
Culture49,567$51.2M+107.7%
Climate9,489$34.6M+36.9%
Misc26,777$12.5M-98.2%
World139,597$30.1M+308.5%
P

Polymarket Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics7,000$1.8B+18.6%
Sports47,291$3.1B+9.4%
Crypto10,364$1.1B+11.3%
Economics1,397$284.3M-60.3%
Finance3,599$149.3M+20.8%
Tech1,409$332.1M+12%
Culture2,650$129.9M+54.6%
Weather3,877$69.9M+80.3%
Misc40,886$1.2B+92.1%
Mentions133$3.1M+9.5%
Last updated: March 6, 2026 at 9:40 PM PST

Data sourced from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US APIs

Latest news making headlines

  • March 3: Kalshi inked a deal with the AP that will allow the exchange to use official AP election data in its markets. Negative public reactions reflect the industry’s current public trust issues.
  • March 2: Nasdaq’s proposed binary “yes-or-no” contracts through its subsidiary Nasdaq MRX could test SEC-CFTC coordination efforts. shift regulatory oversight toward the SEC in prediction markets.
  • March 2: A new coalition led by former Trump Chief of Staff targets sports prediction markets, claiming they are illegal sports gambling dressed as financial products.
  • March 2: DraftKings shared on Investor Day its prediction market roadmap, including plans to launch a ‘Super App’ later this year to take advantage of what they see as a $10B annual revenue opportunity.
  • March 1: The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader resulted in market resolution controversies for Khamenei markets on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with the two exchanges taking vastly different approaches to settlement.
  • Feb. 26: Flutter’s Q4 earnings call confirmed FanDuel Predicts investment will trend toward the upper end of its $200M–$300M guidance range. CEO Peter Jackson framed prediction markets as an accelerant for sportsbook legalization, not a cannibalization risk, while PENN, Caesars, and MGM stayed on the sidelines over gaming license concerns.
  • Feb. 26: ZachXBT alleged that Axiom Exchange employees exploited internal dashboard access to track private user wallets and front-run influencer trades, and it happened outside any CFTC or SEC jurisdiction, with no statutory framework defining the conduct as illegal.
  • Feb. 26: Trump’s SOTU skipped crypto entirely while calling for the Stop Insider Trading Act to pass “without delay.” Some industry insiders are now reading insider trading reform as a prerequisite to the CLARITY Act — a sequencing some see as realistic, others as a poison pill.
  • Feb. 25: Kalshi publicly named two insider trading violators, including a former California gubernatorial candidate who traded his own election market, and a video editor tied to MrBeast markets, as part of a broader transparency push amid sector-wide scrutiny.
  • Feb. 25: DimeTrades filed for CFTC Designated Contract Market status, backed by some members of Kalshi’s legal team, positioning itself as a new entrant to the regulated U.S. prediction market landscape.
  • Feb. 25: Trump’s SOTU generated $11.97M in Kalshi mention market volume, with 79% of trading concentrated on speech night across 55 contracts.
  • Feb. 23: Weekly volume held at $5.25B as Kalshi approached 50% market share, rising 6.7% WoW while Polymarket slid 3.2% and Opinion posted a third straight week of double-digit declines.
  • Feb. 23: FiscalNote, a publicly traded policy intelligence platform, filed SEC paperwork outlining a prediction markets push — including advocacy-sponsored markets and fantasy leagues — with veteran strategist Dr. Laila Mintas named as strategic adviser.
  • Feb. 23: Crypto.com received conditional OCC approval for a national trust bank charter, positioning it to offer federally regulated custody and staking — pending a checklist of outstanding requirements.
  • Feb. 23: DeFi Rate investigated whether Opinion’s $8B January volume reflects real trading activity, finding trade sizes 13–25x the industry norm, sharp user count swings, and structural incentives pointing to inflated data.
  • Feb. 20: Kalshi announced a partnership with Tradeweb targeting institutional macro hedging, embedding prediction market data into a fixed-income platform used by 3,000+ institutions, with direct trading integration still a future possibility.
  • Feb. 19: The White House hosted a third round of CLARITY Act negotiations with Coinbase, Ripple, and banking representatives, with talks described as constructive but a compromise on stablecoin yields still unresolved.
  • Feb. 19: NYSE President Lynn Martin said prediction markets now function as inputs to traditional markets, citing Polymarket’s early call on the 2024 election as the moment S&P futures moved in lockstep with crypto platform odds.
  • Feb. 19: Infrastructure startup Fireplace secures $1.5M funding to build a Bloomberg-style data and trading terminal.
  • Feb. 19: Polymarket launched public US APIs and permissionless liquidity rewards, opening its platform to third-party builders and allowing anyone to sponsor market depth — a structural shift toward institutional participation.
  • Feb. 18: Novig raised $75M in a Pantera-led Series B at a $500M valuation, pivoting from a sweepstakes model to pursue CFTC-regulated exchange status as its path to nationwide sports prediction market operation.
  • Feb 18: Bitwise filed with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) under a dedicated brand called PredictionShares to launch a new suite of ETFs based around upcoming US elections.
  • Feb. 17: Coinbase appears to be scrapping its social push on the Base App in favor of strengthening its “everything exchange” following a reported Q4 net loss of $667 million.
  • Feb. 16: CFTC chair Michael Selig wrote a WSJ op-ed in which he defended federally regulated prediction markets as the agency prepares to weigh in with an amicus brief on a closely watched appeals court case between Crypto.com and Nevada regulators.
  • Feb. 13: Super Bowl 60 produced $1.63 billion in combined trading volume between Kalshi and Polymarket, a figure that marks the biggest single day of trading on record for prediction markets.

What are prediction markets? 

Prediction markets are a venue for trading contracts tied to the outcome of a future event. Sites such as Kalshi and Polymarket allow participants to buy and sell shares in contracts tied to various markets, including politics, economics, pop culture events, and weather forecasts. 

Contracts are the financial instruments used to facilitate trade in prediction markets. At most sites, traders can buy “Yes” or “No” shares on the outcome, with prices ranging from 1 cent to $1. The price serves as an indicator of the perceived likelihood of an event happening. As an example, consider the following market for an economic indicator: 

Example of how a prediction market works

Using the contracts’ pricing as a guide, traders view it as less likely that the funds rate will not decrease when this contract closes. If their speculation proves to be correct, they would earn $1 per contract. Meanwhile, those who hold “Yes” shares would see the value of their holdings go to zero. 

As prediction markets remain open, the price of contracts will fluctuate as traders buy and sell shares in response to new developments. Naturally, there are no guarantees that the market pricing will translate into exactly what will happen.

However, it is a “wisdom of the crowds” indicator that points to an outcome’s overall probability and likelihood.         

How prediction markets work

Prediction market apps function similarly to other financial markets. Traders buy and sell contracts on the outcome of a future event. For comparison, stock market traders buy and sell shares of companies, while popular markets on a commodities exchange include the price of oil or gold. 

In all of the above, traders are speculating on a result in hopes of being correct and ultimately earning a profit. For prediction markets, there are three main components to know:

  • Contracts: These are the financial instruments that are traded and tied to the outcome of future events.  
  • Participants: Those who are trading in the markets and providing liquidity as they buy and sell based on their predictions. 
  • Mechanisms: The platforms that make the markets available, calculate prices, and facilitate transactions. 

Most prediction platforms feature binary options markets, which translates into participants choosing “Yes” or “No” on the available contracts that they are interested in speculating on. The apps make money by charging a fee that varies based on the price of the market. Using the Crypto.com app and a $100 trade as an example, the fee is capped at a maximum of $1.74.       

As you view the available contracts on prediction market platforms, you’ll notice that the total value of “Yes” and “No” options does not equal exactly $1. For example: 

  • Winner of the March Madness tournament semifinal
  • Duke: $0.72
  • Houston: $0.29

The total of the two prices works out to $1.01. This is due to the spread, which is the difference in demand. There is high demand for a market such as this one with a tight spread. If the spread is more prominent, such as $0.05, there’s lower demand and likely less volume and liquidity in the market for that contract. 

Kalshi and Polymarket provide diverse market options for traders to choose from, such as: 

The pricing of contracts can be viewed as the market’s collective “best guess” on the likelihood of an event outcome.

Most popular markets

You can trade on a wide range of real-world events on prediction market platforms. Contracts are available on outcomes in a variety of markets, including: 

  • Sports: Game results, championships, build combo trades
  • Politics: Elections, candidate nominations, legislative outcomes
  • Economics: Central bank rates, inflation, indicators
  • Crypto: Cryptocurrency prices, market events
  • Culture: Award shows, celebrity news, viral trends
  • Climate: Temperature records, storm predictions
  • Companies & Financials: Corporate achievements, stock market trends, index prices
  • Tech & Science: Tech adoption milestones, scientific breakthroughs
  • Health & World: Health and wellness issues, global news, and developments  
  • Mentions: Predictions on words and phrases used by public figures

In terms of overall coverage, Kalshi and Polymarket provide the broadest range of options. Crypto.com is currently limited to sports, PredictIt focuses on politics, while other niche platforms have yet to capture a good deal of mainstream attention. Some platforms allow users to propose new markets, while others curate their offerings centrally. 

In terms of overall usage, Polymarket leads in global web traffic, while Kalshi is tops among US-regulated options. Beyond the trading aspect, prediction markets are often cited for their forecast accuracy. The platforms essentially aggregate the opinions of traders, offering a “wisdom of the crowds’ look at the probability of an event or outcome happening. 

How does pricing work on contracts?

Prediction market contracts are binary options that pay out a fixed amount. It’s typically set at $1 if the event occurs, and $0 if it does not. Before the contract settles, prices will fluctuate between those ranges as traders enter and exit positions. 

When viewing a contract offering on a prediction market platform, the pricing reflects the market’s collective estimate of the probability that the event will happen. Consider the following example:

  • Contract: “Will the Fed raise interest rates in May?” 
  • Pricing: $0.70 for “Yes” and $0.32 for “No.”
  • Implication: The market implies a 70% chance of a rate hike and a 32% chance it won’t happen.

As you’ll notice, the pricing doesn’t exactly equal $1, while the implied probability is greater than 100%. Small differences such as these are common and often reflect the spread between bid and ask pricing or trading fees. Markets with higher liquidity tend to have more stable prices and tighter spreads, while wider price swings can happen in less active contracts. 

While contracts remain open, prices will continue to move as traders react to new information and shifting sentiment, providing a real-time snapshot of the overall market sentiment. At settlement, the resolution for a correct contract call is $1, while the other side will drop to $0.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket fee comparison

The trading fees and costs on prediction markets can impact your overall returns. The table below has a breakdown of the main fees you’ll encounter on Kalshi and Polymarket. 

Fee TypeKalshiPolymarket
Trading Fee$0.07–$1.74 per 100 contracts (varies by contract price; see example)No trading fee
Profit/SettlementNoneNone
Deposit FeeACH free; Debit card 2%None (USDC only)
Withdrawal FeeACH free; Debit card $21.5% on USDC withdrawals

Kalshi’s trading fee is variable and depends on the contract price. For 100 contracts, it can be as low as $0.07 and up to $1.74. There are no settlement fees to worry about. Meanwhile, Polymarket does not charge any trading or settlement fees. 

To illustrate the difference, assume that you’re buying 100 contracts at $0.55 on either platform. At Kalshi, this price point triggers the maximum fee for 100 contracts of $1.74, while Polymarket charges $0. You’d be in for a total of $56.74 at the former, and $55 at the latter.  

If you make the right call, the contract settles at $1 in both spots. At Kalshi, you’ll get back $100, less your fee of $1.74, for a total of $98.26. Polymarket will return an even $100 since there are no fees attached. 

Beyond trading and settlement, be sure to consider the deposit and withdrawal fees that are outlined above. Traders should also be aware of potential “hidden costs” like bid-ask spreads, and the potential challenges of exiting positions in less liquid markets.

Profit potential for betting on predictions

Prediction markets offer opportunities for traders to profit by buying and selling contracts. In its simplest form, the goal is to make the correct calls so your contracts settle at full value. Traders can also aim to “buy low and sell high.”

Strategies for doing just that include looking for mispriced outcomes and acting before the rest of the market catches on. While the potential for returns is real, profits aren’t guaranteed. Market efficiency, liquidity, and timing all play a big role in shaping your results. 

How much can you make by buying a low-priced contract?

Buying low-priced contracts can be enticing due to the potential for big returns. Naturally, there’s plenty of risk here. The contract is priced low for a reason, namely that the chances of that outcome happening aren’t great. 

Let’s consider the following fictitious example for an NBA Playoff game in which there’s a clear favorite to win, at least as far as the market is concerned. 

  • Underdog contract price: $0.10 (10% chance)
  • Quantity: You buy 100 contracts for a total of $10. 
  • Kalshi trading fee: $0.63 (for 100 contracts at this price point)
  • Total upfront cost: $10 + $0.63 = $10.63
  • Outcome: Underdog wins; contracts settle at $1 each
  • Payout: 100 × $1 = $100
  • Net profit: $100 – $10.63 = $89.37

In this case, a small investment yields a large return if the prediction is correct. Seeking out low-priced contracts with realistic profit potential can be part of a well-rounded trading approach, but remember to account for the increased risks of trading less-likely outcomes.  

What happens if you sell your contract before the event?

Prediction markets aren’t just about holding contracts to settlement. You can also sell your position before the event concludes if the odds move in your favor. This is especially common in political markets, where news cycles and polling shifts can cause prices to swing rapidly.

Consider the following as an example: “Will Candidate X win the election?”

  • Polymarket contract price: $0.45 (45% chance)..
  • Quantity: You buy 50 contracts for a total of $22.50.
  • New developments and polling substantially boosts Candidate X’s chances. 
  • The contract price rises to $0.70.
  • You decide to sell all 50 contracts at $0.70 each for a total of $35
  • Polymarket trading fee: $0 (no trading fee; only a withdrawal fee applies if you cash out)
  • Net profit: $35 – $22.50 = $12.50
  • If you withdraw your USDC, a 1.5% withdrawal fee applies: $35 × 0.015 = $0.53

By selling before the event, you lock in your gains and avoid the uncertainty of the final outcome. This approach can be especially useful when you think the market has overreacted or you want to cash out and take your profit after a favorable news development. 

Can you profit by betting ‘No’ on an event?

Prediction markets also allow you to profit by betting against an outcome happening. This is where you would buy the “No” side of the equation when you anticipate that the contract will ultimately resolve to that end result. 

Consider the following example: “Will U.S. inflation exceed 4% this quarter?”

  • Kalshi “No” contract price: $0.60 (60% chance).
  • Quantity: You buy 75 contracts for a total of $45. 
  • Kalshi trading fee: $1.50 (at $0.02 per contract for this price point)
  • Total upfront cost: $45 + $1.50 = $46.50
  • If inflation comes in below 4%, each contract settles at $1
  • Payout: 75 × $1 = $75
  • Net profit: $75 – $46.50 = $28.50

Taking the “No” side can be a valuable strategy when you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of an event. Regardless of which outcome you choose, stick to your comfort level for both contract pricing and the total amount of your trades.   

Are prediction markets the same as gambling? 

Prediction markets are not, by definition, the same as gambling. The former is considered a tool for forecasting outcomes based on probabilities. Casino, sports, and lottery are generally viewed as games of chance. That said, there are similarities between the two, most notably that the goal is to turn a profit.   

From the perspective of a prediction platform, the contracts are on equal footing to a commodities exchange. Using the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as an example, futures and options are traded on stock indexes, precious metals, energy commodities, and more. Traders take positions on the various instruments based on their expectations of what will happen.  

In a prediction market, traders are doing the same thing, albeit in a broader variety of options, such as political, cultural, and economic events. The gambling label has been attached to these platforms as they have risen in popularity, even more so since the introduction of contracts on various sporting events, such as the winner of March Madness or the next Super Bowl winner.  

Prediction market platforms like Kalshi, PredictIt, and ForecastEx are currently available across the US. However, questions on their overall legality continue to linger. A case between Kalshi and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission remains unresolved. Kalshi won the latest round, but litigation is ongoing. 

The platform offered contracts for the 2024 US elections, and has since expanded into sports futures. Meanwhile, states like Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, and Ohio have presented the company with cease-and-desist letters, essentially arguing that they’re offering unregulated sports betting.     

If interest in prediction markets is a guide, then the future looks incredibly bright. Kalshi and Polymarket have attracted extensive volume for tentpole events that it has offered contracts for, including the 2024 US elections, the Super Bowl, and March Madness.

Understanding the math of prediction market contracts

Prediction market contract pricing is generally straightforward. You can view an available market and quickly determine the implied probability of an event happening, at least as far as the overall market sentiment is concerned. 

That said, the actual trading of contracts takes a little more doing on the calculation front. You can use the below formulas and examples as a cheat sheet to help gain even more of a comfort level with prediction market trading. 

How to calculate the number of contracts you can buy

Formula: Number of Contracts = (Available Capital) ÷ (Contract Price + Fees)

Example:

  • You want to trade $50. 
  • Each contract you’re interested in costs $0.25.
  • Kalshi fee: $0.02 per contract at this price point.
  • Calculation: $50 ÷ ($0.25 + $0.02) ≈ 192 contracts

Estimating potential profit and loss

Formula: Profit = (Sell Price – Buy Price) × Number of Contracts – Fees

Example:

  • You buy 100 contracts at $0.30 and sell at $0.60.
  • Profit = ($0.60 – $0.30) × 100 = $30
  • Kalshi fee: $1.68 (for 100 contracts at $0.60)
  • Net profit = $30 – $1.68 = $28.32

Finding your break-even price

Formula: Break-even Price = (Buy Price + Total Fees) ÷ Number of Contracts

Example:

  • You buy 50 contracts at $0.40, for a total of $20. 
  • Total fees if you sold at the same price: $1 ($0.02 per contract). 
  • Break-even = ($20 + $1) ÷ 50 = $0.42 per contract
  • You need to sell above $0.42 to make a profit.

By taking the time to understand these quick calculations, you could spot appealing opportunities that much quicker. As an added benefit, you’ll be better equipped to manage risk and make more informed trades. 

Risks to consider when trading in prediction markets

Trading in prediction markets can be entertaining and potentially profitable, but it’s not devoid of risk. Understanding the potential pitfalls can help you mitigate unnecessary mistakes and ultimately make more informed decisions. Key risks to consider include: 

  • Unexpected outcomes: There’s always the potential for a complete loss of your stake, even when the odds seem overwhelmingly in your favor.
  • Low liquidity: Certain markets attract a limited amount of volume, which can make it difficult to buy or sell contracts at fair prices.
  • Platform issues: While top platforms tend to operate without lengthy interruptions, there are simply no guarantees when it comes to security or technical glitches. 
  • Regulatory environment: Prediction markets are soaring in popularity and readily accessible, but are also subject to developments from ongoing legal challenges. 
  • Distorted prices: Biases, groupthink, manipulation, and misinformation could all impact contract pricing in both high- and low-volume markets.   

If you trade in prediction markets, there is risk. However, you can take steps to help manage it better. At the top of the list, you should only trade with money that you can afford to lose. Nothing is guaranteed with trading, no matter what the odds may suggest. 

Next, stay informed about what’s happening. Knowing what’s going on with the regulatory front can help you make better decisions on where to park your funds. Lastly, stick to what you know and don’t blindly chase volume. After all, the herd isn’t always correct.  

About The Author
Author Cheryle Shepstone
Cheryle Shepstone
Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-check. Before DeFi Rate, she led content and growth strategy at Catena Media, where she helped shape content and revenue strategy for regulated and financial markets. She has 20 years of experience in research and marketing strategy
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