- ▸ Kalshi’s 2026 PGA Championship markets topped $365.2M in total volume, with the Outright Winner market alone accounting for nearly $333.5M.
- ▸ Aaron Rai won the tournament despite drawing just $8.4M in outright backing, far behind Scottie Scheffler’s $20.1M and Rory McIlroy’s $13.7M.
- ▸ In-game trading dominated activity, with 76.1% of non-combo volume occurring during the tournament and final-day parlays generating $5.3M alone.
Kalshi’s markets for the 2026 PGA Championship topped $365.2 million in volume across all categories, with $9.8 million of that coming from combos or parlays, according to DeFi Rate’s internal market tracking. The Outright Winner market represented nearly $333.5 million of the overall total, although Aaron Rai defied the market with his first career major victory.
Scottie Sheffler was the favorite across all markets early, but a final score of 278 (2-under) put him tied for 14th when all the rounds were over. Besides the outright winner, the other markets that saw heavy action were top finisher and end-of-round contracts.
The majority of trading volume took place during the event itself, with 76.1% of the non-combo volume happening in-game. The final day’s volume was the highest of any single day, but could have been higher with more drama down the stretch.
PGA Championship 2026 Volume by Day
| Period | PGA volume | % of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-tournament | $85,024,116 | 23.90% |
| Day 1 | $77,970,197 | 21.90% |
| Day 2 | $53,719,775 | 15.10% |
| Day 3 | $60,239,730 | 16.90% |
| Day 4 | $78,501,091 | 22.10% |
Rai defies PGA championship market with over $8 million backing him
Although Rai won his second career PGA event with a 9-under 271, five other competitors drew more volume than he did in the Outright Winner market. More than $333.5 million was traded at Kalshi in the Outright Winner market from the time the contracts opened until they were settled, with just over $8.4 million backing Rai to win outright.
The market favorite, Sheffler, generated over $20.1 million, nearly three times the eventual winner’s volume. Jon Rahm and Alex Smalley, who tied for second with 6-under 274 totals, represented the third- and fourth-highest volume in the Outright Winner market, respectively.
There were others who finished in the top 10 of the leaderboard and also represented the top 10 in Outright Winner volume at Kalshi:
- Rory McIlroy: 4-under 276 to finish tied for seventh; second in volume at almost $13.7 million
- Justin Thomas: 5-under 275 to tie for fourth; fifth in volume at nearly $9 million
- Matti Schmid: 5-under 275 to tie for fourth; seventh in volume at over $7.6 million
- Justin Rose: 3-under 277 to tie for 10th; ninth in volume at over $8.5 million
- Ludvig Aberg: 5-under 275 to tie for fourth; 10th in volume at just over $8 million
Also trading in the top 10 in the Outright Winner market was Cameron Young, who was eighth in volume at almost $9.7 million but shot an even par 280 to tie for 26th place. That represented a disappointing performance for Young, who had finished in the top 10 in six of his previous seven events.
End of Round 3 leader markets and combos also drive interest
Although the gap was massive, the second-most traded market involved contracts pertaining to the leader at the end of the third round with almost $5.5 million in volume. Only three other markets did seven figures in volume.
- Top 20 Finishers: Almost $5.3 million in volume
- Top 10 Finishers: Nearly $4.6 million
- Top 5 Finishers: Just over $4 million
A head-to-head Aberg vs. Rai market for the final round drew just $32,925. That was the second-largest volume for a head-to-head market, though, with Aberg vs. Rahm for the full tournament taking the top spot at $71,129.
Combo contracts represented around $9.8 million of the total event volume. The final day’s parlays accounted for almost 55% of the total combo volume for the entire tournament.
- Day 1: $916,668
- Day 2: $839,464
- Day 3: $2.2 million
- Day 4: $5.3 million
The 2026 PGA Tour continues on May 21-24 with The CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. Sheffler is the defending champion in that event.
Methodology Note: Defi Rate’s PGA Championship data was sourced directly from Kalshi’s market and trade tapes, including all relevant winner, finish, prop, and verified PGA-related combo markets. Daily and tournament-period numbers are from actual Kalshi trades, while cumulative totals reflect Kalshi’s full market volume since the contracts opened.
