CLARITY Act is closing in on a Senate markup with stablecoin yield 99% resolved.
CLARITY Act Facts, Deadline and Updates
Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R. 3633). Divides crypto regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC. Passed the House 294-134. Senate stalled over stablecoin yield. Trump blames banks for delaying the Clarity Act.
At a glance
Key numbers
House vote
294–134
Passed July 17, 2025
Deadline
Spring
Senate Banking markup target after March 1 text deadline passes
Cosponsors
21
14 R / 7 D + sponsor
Kalshi odds
~69%
Last verified: 2026-03-20
Polymarket odds
~63%
Last verified: 2026-03-20
Fairshake war chest
$193M
2026 midterm PAC funding
Legislative history
Timeline and latest news
Mar 19, 2026
Stablecoin yield declared “99% resolved”; community bank deregulation enters the deal
Senate Republicans held a closed meeting attended by White House Crypto Council director Patrick Witt. Sen. Lummis told reporters stablecoin yield negotiations are 99% resolved and the digital asset portions of the bill are in a good place — remaining friction is political, not technical. Senate Banking Republicans are now discussing attaching community bank deregulatory provisions to the CLARITY Act in exchange for the House accepting the Senate’s housing package, drawing the bill into a broader legislative trade. Sen. Moreno warned that if the bill does not advance by May, digital asset legislation may not move forward for years.
Mar 18, 2026
House Republican warns Senate is out of time
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott said at the DC Blockchain Summit that “big momentum is finally on our side” and expected a first proposal in his hands by end of week. House Republican Dusty Johnson said he didn’t understand the Senate’s pace and warned “we really are running out of time,” noting that 3–4 Senate Democrats still need to commit before a deal can close.
Mar 17, 2026
SEC and CFTC issue joint 68-page crypto asset taxonomy
The SEC and CFTC issued a joint 68-page interpretation explicitly naming 16 crypto assets as digital commodities and classifying staking, mining, and airdrops outside securities law. SEC Chair Atkins and Republican commissioners framed it as interim policy, writing: “Only Congress can rewrite the law, and we stand ready to work with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig to implement the CLARITY Act.”
Mar 10, 2026
Senators converge on stablecoin yield compromise; ABA continues lobbying
Senators, crypto advocates, and bankers reached broad agreement on keeping rewards away from static stablecoin holdings that resemble bank accounts, though the American Bankers Association continued lobbying to close any yield loophole. Senators Alsobrooks and Tillis were reported to be working on compromise language. Unresolved issues beyond stablecoin yield include DeFi treatment, Democratic demands for CFTC/SEC appointments, and calls to ban senior government officials — including Trump — from profiting on personal crypto business ties.
Mar 8, 2026
Trump says he won’t sign legislation until SAVE America Act passes
Trump posted on Truth Social that he would not sign any legislation until the SAVE America Act — a voting reform bill requiring proof of citizenship for voter registration — cleared Congress in its strongest form. The post made no mention of crypto but placed the CLARITY Act further back in the Senate’s legislative queue.
Mar 3, 2026
Trump blasts banks on Truth Social, demands CLARITY Act passage “ASAP”
President Trump posted on Truth Social accusing banks of holding market structure legislation “hostage” over their opposition to stablecoin yield provisions, and urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act without delay. The post came as White House-facilitated negotiations between banking and crypto representatives continued, with draft language reportedly still circulating among lawmakers. Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson separately called the bill a “horrific, trash bill” that could push future crypto founders offshore. Via DeFi Rate
Mar 2, 2026
JPMorgan calls CLARITY Act a major H2 2026 catalyst; Polymarket odds hit 72%
JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou published a research note describing CLARITY Act passage by midyear as a “positive catalyst” for digital assets, citing regulatory clarity, institutional scaling, and tokenization growth as key drivers. Separately, Polymarket priced 2026 signing odds at 72%—up roughly 12 points from the prior week—while Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse put passage odds at 80–90% by late April. Via Yahoo Finance
Mar 1, 2026
White House stablecoin deadline passes without a deal
The White House’s self-imposed March 1 deadline for banks and crypto firms to resolve stablecoin yield language expired without a public compromise. Crypto stakeholders insisted negotiations remain active, while a banking source said both sides are still exchanging legislative text. Senate Banking Committee is now eyeing a mid-to-late March markup window as a second attempt. Via Crypto In America
Feb 26, 2026
Senate Banking hearing puts crypto center stage
Senate Banking Committee oversight hearing with OCC, FDIC, and Fed officials dominated by stablecoin and CLARITY Act discussions. Chairman Tim Scott noted deposit flight fears “do not seem to be realized, whatsoever,” citing recent deposit increases. Sen. Warren pressed OCC Comptroller Gould on World Liberty Financial’s bank charter application. Via CoinDesk
Feb 26, 2026
House introduces bipartisan blockchain developer protection bill
Representatives Fitzgerald, Cline, and Lofgren introduced the Promoting Innovation in Blockchain Development Act of 2026, shielding software developers who don’t control customer funds from prosecution under money transmission laws. The Blockchain Association simultaneously sent 21 leaders from 18 companies to meet with 24 Senate offices on DeFi provisions in the CLARITY Act draft. Via CoinGape
Feb 25, 2026
OCC releases 376-page GENIUS Act proposed rulemaking
OCC issued proposed rules implementing the GENIUS Act with a 60-day comment period. The proposal would restrict stablecoin-as-a-service platforms and presumes third-party yield arrangements violate the Act’s ban on issuer interest payments, casting doubt on Coinbase’s stablecoin rewards model and complicating CLARITY Act negotiations. Via OCC
Feb 25, 2026
Democrats convene on CLARITY Act; a16z briefs Republicans
Senate Democrats met to discuss advancing the crypto market structure bill ahead of the March 1 deadline. Separately, a16z’s Marc Andreessen and Chris Dixon briefed Senate Republicans, urging passage of the CLARITY Act. Polymarket odds recovered to 69% after dropping to as low as 42% earlier in the week. Via The Block
Feb 21, 2026
White House proposes yield compromise at ETHDenver
Patrick Witt told ETHDenver attendees that the gap between banks and crypto firms “shrunk considerably,” proposing draft language banning yield on idle stablecoin balances while permitting activity-based rewards. Violations would carry penalties up to $500,000/day. Witt said resolving rewards could trigger a “domino effect” accelerating Senate action before the March 1 deadline. Via Ledger Insights
Feb 20, 2026
White House circulates draft rewards language, sets March 1 deadline
Following the Feb 19 meeting, White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt outlined draft text allowing stablecoin rewards only for “activities or transactions (not balances).” The White House explicitly set March 1 as the deadline for reaching compromise language before Senate Banking Committee action. Via Disruption Banking
Feb 19, 2026
White House holds third meeting (developing)
Third White House bank/crypto meeting reported progress but no final deal; participants described discussions as constructive, with draft language work continuing on stablecoin rewards.
Feb 18, 2026
Coinbase CEO signals progress in negotiations
Brian Armstrong publicly indicated progress in CLARITY/stablecoin-yield discussions, suggesting movement toward compromise while core policy disagreements remain unresolved.
Feb 13, 2026
Bessent calls for spring signing, cites midterm pressure
Treasury Secretary Bessent calls for rapid passage, signals spring signing target. Says the 2026 midterms create urgency. Separately, Patrick Witt (crypto council director) tells Yahoo Finance: “I believe we’ll get this done.”
Feb 12, 2026
SEC Chair Atkins: rules without legislation aren’t “future-proof”
Atkins tells Senate Banking Committee the SEC can write interim crypto rules but they’re vulnerable to reversal without statutory backing. References “our now-joint Project Crypto” SEC-CFTC collaboration. Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) signals Democrats haven’t abandoned talks.
Feb 10, 2026
Second White House meeting — bankers demand total yield ban
Banks arrive with a “principles” document calling for a complete ban on stablecoin yield. No compromise reached. BofA CEO Moynihan reportedly warns trillions could migrate from bank deposits to yield-bearing stablecoins. White House sets end-of-Feb deadline for a deal.
Feb 5, 2026
Bessent calls industry holdouts “nihilists” at FSOC testimony
Treasury Secretary Bessent tells FSOC that crypto firms blocking legislation are “nihilists” who should “move to El Salvador.” Strongest White House rhetoric yet against industry opposition.
Jan 29, 2026
Senate Ag Committee advances DCIA — 12 to 11
Party-line vote. First time a crypto market structure bill clears a Senate committee. All Democratic amendments (ethics, DeFi, AML) fail 12-11. Bill text unchanged post-markup.
Jan 21–23, 2026
Davos confrontation
Armstrong clashes with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and BofA CEO Brian Moynihan at WEF. Dimon accuses Armstrong of “lying on television” about banks sabotaging crypto legislation. Industry split deepens.
Jan 21, 2026
Senate Ag releases updated bill text
Chairman Boozman releases the “Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act” (S. 3755). Republican-only version — bipartisan support collapses after Booker walks away. Focuses on CFTC intermediary registration.
Jan 14, 2026
Coinbase withdraws support — markup postponed
CEO Brian Armstrong posts on X: “There are too many issues.” Objects to stablecoin yield restrictions, tokenized equity limits, DeFi surveillance provisions, and weakened CFTC authority. Senate Banking Committee delays Jan 15 markup within hours.
Jan 12, 2026
Senate Banking releases 278-page draft
New draft introduces stablecoin yield restrictions, expanded BSA/AML provisions, and DeFi protocol reporting requirements. Sparks immediate industry backlash.
Nov 10, 2025
Senate Agriculture discussion draft
Sens. John Boozman (R-AR) and Cory Booker (D-NJ) release bipartisan discussion draft of the Senate Ag Committee’s version.
Sept 18, 2025
Received in the Senate
H.R. 3633 formally received and referred to Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.
Sept 5, 2025
Responsible Financial Innovation Act draft
Senate Banking Committee releases 182-page discussion draft building on the CLARITY Act framework.
July 22, 2025
Senate Banking discussion draft
Sens. Tim Scott, Cynthia Lummis, Bill Hagerty, and Bernie Moreno release Senate Banking Committee’s version for public review. Scott calls the House bill a “strong template.”
July 17, 2025
House passage — 294 to 134
Passes under structured rule (H. Res. 580). Bipartisan support with significant Democratic crossover. Same week the GENIUS Act (stablecoin bill) passes both chambers.
June 10, 2025
Committee markup sessions
House Financial Services Committee (32-19) and Agriculture Committee (47-6) both advance the bill. Agriculture Committee passes with strong bipartisan support. Reports filed June 23 (H. Rept. 119-168, Parts I and II).
May 29, 2025
Bill introduced in the House
House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill introduces H.R. 3633. Referred to Committee on Financial Services and Committee on Agriculture. 8 original cosponsors; 21 total (14 R, 7 D).
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Pro-market milestone
Procedural / neutral
Mixed / contentious
Setback
Developing
Senate tracker
Where the bill stands in the Senate
| Committee / body | Version | Status | Key sticking point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate Agriculture Committee | Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act (S. 3755) | Advanced 12-11 Jan 29, 2026 | Partisan only. No ethics amendment. DeFi treatment deferred. Meme coins under CFTC. |
| Senate Banking Committee | CLARITY Act (Senate version, 278-page draft) | Markup postponed Jan 14, 2026 — March reschedule pending yield deal | White House proposed activity-based rewards compromise; idle yield effectively off the table. OCC GENIUS Act rulemaking adds regulatory pressure on yield independently. Democrats also demanding ethics provisions on official crypto conflicts. |
| Full Senate floor | Requires reconciliation of Ag + Banking versions | Pending committee action | Needs 60 votes to overcome filibuster. Republicans hold 53 seats — need 7+ Democrats. |
| House-Senate conference | Final bill must reconcile with House H.R. 3633 | Not yet triggered | House version differs on stablecoins, DeFi scope, and tokenized equities. |
Core framework
What the CLARITY Act does
Jurisdictional division
CFTC authority
Exclusive jurisdiction over “digital commodity” spot markets. Covers sufficiently decentralized tokens like BTC and ETH. Registers exchanges, brokers, and dealers.
SEC authority
Retains jurisdiction over “investment contract assets” (digital asset securities). Oversees tokens sold as part of investment contracts.
Joint rulemaking
SEC and CFTC required to issue joint rules on mixed digital asset transactions, portfolio margining, and conflict of interest provisions.
SEC rulemaking deadline
270 days post-enactment (Sec. 105)
Key provisions
Asset classification
Creates three categories: digital commodities, investment contract assets, and permitted payment stablecoins.
Mature blockchain test
Token qualifies as digital commodity if no single entity controls 20%+ of supply or governance. Provides measurable legal path out of investment contract asset classification.
DeFi exclusion
Sec. 309 / 409: Excludes DeFi activities and non-controlling blockchain developers from certain registration requirements.
Stablecoin treatment
Sets bank-level prudential rules for permitted payment stablecoin issuers. Senate Banking Committee’s Jan 12 draft introduces stablecoin yield restrictions — the primary source of industry dispute. House-passed bill does not contain these restrictions.
Anti-CBDC provision
Title VI (added via Rules Committee substitute during House floor action) includes the “Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act” — prohibits Federal Reserve from offering retail products or using CBDC for monetary policy.
State preemption
Sec. 308: Exempts digital commodities from state securities laws. Does not explicitly address state gambling law preemption for event contracts.
Ethics clause
Existing OGE rules bar Congress members and senior officials from issuing digital commodities while in office. Democrats want stronger provisions.
Consumer protections
Customer asset segregation, disclosure requirements, conflict of interest safeguards, educational material mandates.
AML/illicit finance
Senate version significantly expands illicit finance provisions for digital assets. Applies BSA/AML/CFT requirements to centralized intermediaries and extends reporting obligations to certain DeFi protocols.
Scope limits
What the CLARITY Act does not do
Does not regulate DeFi lending or borrowing
The bill excludes decentralized finance protocols from most registration requirements (Sec. 309/409). DeFi lending, borrowing, and liquidity pools remain outside the statutory framework. Non-custodial developers are carved out entirely.
Does not address event contracts or prediction markets
Does not amend CFTC Reg. 40.11 (event contract rules) or resolve the federal-vs-state prediction market jurisdiction question. That fight continues separately through CFTC rulemaking and litigation.
Does not create a federal licensing regime for stablecoin issuers
Stablecoin prudential rules are addressed in the GENIUS Act (separate legislation). CLARITY Act sets classification rules but defers issuer licensing to other law.
Does not ban or regulate NFTs
Title V mandates a study on non-fungible tokens (Sec. 505) but does not classify or regulate them. NFT treatment is deferred to future rulemaking.
Does not preempt state gambling laws
Sec. 308 preempts state securities laws for digital commodities, but does not address state gambling or gaming law preemption. States retain authority to regulate event contracts and prediction markets.
Does not address crypto taxation
Tax treatment of digital assets is handled separately by the PARITY Act and existing IRS guidance. CLARITY Act is a market structure bill, not a tax bill. For how current IRS rules apply to your trades, staking rewards, and airdrops, see our tax calculator for crypto trades.
Does not resolve the stablecoin yield dispute
The Senate Banking Committee’s Jan 12 draft yield restrictions are the primary reason the bill is stalled. Whether stablecoin rewards are permitted, banned, or carved out remains the central unresolved question as of Feb 2026.
Bill support
Cosponsors
22 sponsors (14 Republican, 7 Democrat + sponsor)
French Hill
R-AR-2 · HFSC Chair
Glenn Thompson
R-PA-15 · Ag Chair
Angie Craig
D-MN-2
Tom Emmer
R-MN-6 · Majority Whip
Dusty Johnson
R-SD-AL
Donald G. Davis
D-NC-1
Bryan Steil
R-WI-1
Ritchie Torres
D-NY-15
Josh Gottheimer
D-NJ-5
Warren Davidson
R-OH-8
Bill Huizenga
R-MI-4
Zachary Nunn
R-IA-3
Michael Lawler
R-NY-17
Daniel Meuser
R-PA-9
Buddy Carter
R-GA-1
Riley Moore
R-WV-2
Nicholas Begich III
R-AK-AL
Kristen McDonald Rivet
D-MI-8
Mark Messmer
R-IN-8
Robert Bresnahan Jr.
R-PA-8
Haley Stevens
D-MI-11
Shri Thanedar
D-MI-13
Republican 14
Democrat 7
Original = cosponsor at introduction
Influence
Industry lobbying on the CLARITY Act (2025)
Top spenders — $14.6M+ total lobbying on CLARITY Act and related bills
Source: Washington Examiner analysis of lobbying disclosures (Jan 17, 2026). Amounts are approximations — source reports “over $1M” for several firms. Q4 2025 filings incomplete — actual totals likely higher. Commercial banks spent $56.7M on lobbying in 2025 (not CLARITY-specific, per OpenSecrets).
Fairshake PAC — 2026 midterm war chest
Total raised
$193M cash on hand (Fairshake + affiliated PACs Protect Progress and Defend American Jobs). Includes $73.8M raised in H2 2025 per FEC filings.
Top donors
Coinbase ($25M), Ripple Labs ($25M), a16z ($24M). Includes affiliated PACs Protect Progress (D) and Defend American Jobs (R).
2024 cycle spending
$130M+ on media buys. 12 of 22 CLARITY Act sponsors backed by Fairshake network.
vs. banking lobby
Commercial banks spent $56.7M on federal lobbying in 2025. CLARITY Act appeared on many bank lobbying disclosures — opposing stablecoin yield loopholes.
Stakeholders
Key players
Legislators
Rep. French Hill (R-AR)House Financial Services Chair. Bill sponsor. Pushing for bicameral reconciliation.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)Senate Banking Committee Chair. Leading Senate version. Crypto industry top recipient.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY)Subcommittee on Digital Assets Chair. Co-released Senate Banking discussion draft.
Sen. John Boozman (R-AR)Senate Ag Committee Chair. Steered DCIA through committee markup. Led party-line vote.
Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)Lead Democratic negotiator. Withdrew from bipartisan Ag draft over ethics provisions and Trump family crypto conflicts.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)Senate Banking Ranking Member. Opposes weak AML provisions and DeFi exclusions.
Executive branch
President TrumpPublicly urged Congress to pass crypto market structure bill. Wants U.S. as “crypto capital of the world.” Personal crypto interests complicate ethics debate.
Treasury Sec. Scott BessentActively mediating bank-crypto dispute. Called industry holdouts “nihilists” at Feb 5 FSOC testimony. Pushing for spring signing.
Patrick WittWhite House crypto council executive director. Publicly criticized Armstrong’s opposition. Hosting Feb 10 mediation.
CFTC Chair Michael SeligConfirmed Dec 18, 2025 (sworn Dec 22). Jan 29 speech launched new event contract rulemaking. Withdrew 2024 proposed ban and 2025 staff advisory.
SEC Chair Paul AtkinsProposed crypto asset taxonomy classifying most tokens as non-securities. Referenced “our now-joint Project Crypto” SEC-CFTC collaboration during Feb 12 Senate Banking testimony.
Industry
Coinbase (Brian Armstrong)Largest U.S. crypto exchange. Withdrew support Jan 14 over stablecoin yield ban, tokenized equity limits. Over $2M in direct CLARITY Act lobbying. $25M to Fairshake.
a16z (Chris Dixon)Major VC backer. Publicly disagreed with Armstrong’s withdrawal. Urged pushing bill forward despite flaws.
Ripple (Brad Garlinghouse)Supports passing bill with imperfections over continued uncertainty.
Banking industryJPMorgan, BofA, Wells Fargo opposing stablecoin yield loopholes. $56.7M in lobbying spend (2025). Fear deposit flight to crypto platforms.
Fairshake PAC$193M cash on hand for 2026 midterms. Funded by Coinbase ($25M), Ripple, a16z. 12 of 22 bill sponsors backed by Fairshake network.
Blockchain Association~$1.5M in CLARITY Act lobbying (2025, second-highest).
Fault lines
Unresolved disputes
Stablecoin yieldThe central dispute. Banks want all stablecoin yield banned. Coinbase argues its USDC rewards (~3.5%) aren’t deposits. Senate Banking draft would effectively ban yield. GENIUS Act left a loophole for non-issuer affiliates. White House mediating with end-of-Feb (March 1) deadline.
Ethics / Trump conflictsDemocrats demand provisions banning officials from profiting off crypto. Republicans say existing OGE rules are sufficient and ethics amendments are outside Agriculture Committee jurisdiction. Public Citizen calls the bill the “gryfto bill.”
DeFi protocol oversightSenate Banking draft extends BSA/AML obligations to some DeFi protocols. Coinbase and privacy advocates object. Ag Committee bill defers DeFi entirely. Non-custodial developer treatment unresolved.
Tokenized equitiesSenate draft restricts how blockchain-based shares operate on crypto infrastructure. Industry warns this stifles digital securities markets. NYSE has announced its own tokenization plans.
CFTC governanceDemocrats want a fully staffed, bipartisan CFTC before expanding its authority. Agency currently has vacancies. Amendment to require bipartisan commission failed 12-11.
60-vote thresholdRepublicans hold 53 seats. Need 7+ Democratic crossovers to overcome filibuster. Current partisan trajectory makes floor passage uncertain without compromises on ethics and DeFi.
Bill structure
Six titles of the CLARITY Act (House-passed)
Title IDefinitions, rulemaking, expedited registration. Defines digital commodity, investment contract asset, mature blockchain, mixed digital asset transaction. Sets 270-day SEC rulemaking deadline (Sec. 105).
Title IISEC jurisdiction provisions. Treatment of investment contract assets. Clarifies when tokens are securities. Registration exemptions for mature blockchains.
Title IIIJoint SEC-CFTC provisions. Treatment of digital commodities and stablecoins. Anti-fraud authority. ATS eligibility. Dual-registration rules. State securities law preemption.
Title IVCFTC jurisdiction. Digital commodity exchange registration (Sec. 404). Broker/dealer requirements. Commodity pool operator extensions. Customer asset segregation. The heart of the CFTC expansion.
Title VInnovation and studies. Codifies LabCFTC as Strategic Hub for Innovation and Financial Technology. Mandates studies on DeFi, NFTs (Sec. 505), financial literacy, and market infrastructure.
Title VIAnti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. Added via Rules Committee substitute amendment during House floor action (not in introduced text). Prohibits Federal Reserve from issuing a retail CBDC or using it for monetary policy.
Reference
Key legal analyses and primary sources
- Full bill text — H.R. 3633Congress.gov
- Bill tracker with vote history and prognosisGovTrack.us
- Senate Banking Committee fact sheets (4 one-pagers)Senate Banking Committee, Jan 13, 2026
- Myth vs. Fact: The CLARITY ActSenate Banking Committee, Jan 13, 2026
- US Crypto Policy Tracker — legislative developmentsLatham & Watkins (updated continuously)
- Senate Ag Committee updated text analysisDavis Wright Tremaine, Jan 2026
- CLARITY Act delay analysisBaker McKenzie, Jan 16, 2026
- DCIA clears Senate Ag Committee — analysisTroutman Pepper, Feb 10, 2026
- CLARITY Act + PARITY Act tax implicationsBDO, Jan 2026
- Chairman Selig’s event contract rulemaking speechCFTC.gov, Jan 29, 2026
- CFTC signals imminent rulemaking on prediction marketsSidley Austin, Feb 13, 2026
Market pricing
Prediction market odds on CLARITY Act passage
Polymarket odds~74% YES as of March 4, 2026. ~$333,000+ total volume. Highly volatile: started ~80% in early Jan, crashed to ~50% after Coinbase withdrawal (Jan 14), recovered to 53% by late Jan, spiked to 72% during Senate Democratic caucus meeting. Contract: H.R. 3633 specifically — similar bills under different numbers resolve NO.
Kalshi oddsBroader “crypto market structure legislation” framing with monthly expiry contracts. More conservative than Polymarket at 68%, reflecting skepticism about Senate Banking Committee timeline and stablecoin yield compromise deadline.
Resolution criteriaPolymarket: bill must be signed under H.R. 3633 specifically by Dec 31, 2026 — revised Senate proposals or alternative bill numbers resolve NO. Kalshi: broader category framing with monthly expiry contracts (March, June, End of 2026.).
Spread contextPolymarket typically higher than Kalshi, likely reflecting different resolution criteria (bill-specific vs. category), different user bases, and Polymarket’s crypto-native audience being more optimistic about passage. White House set end-of-Feb deadline for stablecoin yield compromise — next major catalyst for both markets.
