Gemini is exiting the UK, European Union, and Australia and cutting nearly 25% of its workforce as it restructures. The crypto exchange believes that prediction markets, not global exchange expansion, will define its next phase of growth.
The decision was outlined in a company blog post titled “Gemini 2.0,” where founders Tyler Winklevoss and Cameron Winklevoss said the new development was a strategic reset. Gemini said customers in the UK, EU, and Australia will enter withdrawal-only mode on March 5, ahead of full shutdowns in April.
“These foreign markets have proven hard to win for various reasons,” the company wrote. “We find ourselves stretched thin with a level of organizational and operational complexity that drives our cost structure up and slows us down.”
The company added that demand outside the US no longer justified the overhead required to operate across dozens of jurisdictions.
Prediction markets move to the center of Gemini’s strategy
Affected users are being directed to the brokerage platform eToro to assist with asset transfers. New deposits and account creation in those regions have already been suspended. Rather than attributing the move to regulation alone, Gemini described the affected markets as structurally hard to win.
What distinguishes Gemini’s retrenchment from earlier crypto exchange exits is where resources are being reallocated. Gemini explicitly identified prediction markets as the centerpiece of its future product strategy.
“Our thesis is that prediction markets will be as big or bigger than today’s capital markets,” the founders wrote, describing them as a “truth machine” powered by the wisdom of crowds.
Gemini launched Gemini Predictions in mid-December after securing a CFTC Designated Contract Market license. This made it one of a small but growing number of federally approved platforms offering event-based contracts nationwide in the US. The company said more than 10,000 users have traded over $24 million on the platform since launch.
Rather than treating predictions as a side feature, Gemini said it plans to bring them “more front-and-center” inside its app as part of a push toward a crypto “super app.”
A different bet than global expansion
Gemini’s pivot is different from earlier industry strategies that prioritized geographic expansion and regulatory arbitrage. While many exchanges spent the past decade racing to secure licenses across Europe, Asia, and Australia, Gemini is now effectively reversing that strategy.
“The reality is that America has the world’s greatest capital markets,” the founders wrote. “America has always been where it’s at for Gemini. So it’s time for Gemini to focus and double down on America.”
That focus aligns with Gemini’s belief that prediction markets, particularly regulated ones, will scale fastest in the US, where institutional participation, liquidity, and legal clarity are improving.
The workforce reduction is also tied to internal productivity changes rather than purely cost-cutting. Gemini said advances in AI have fundamentally altered how much output smaller teams can produce.
“A smaller organization, leveraging the right tools, isn’t just more efficient, it’s actually faster,” the company wrote, noting that its headcount has already fallen roughly 50% from a 2022 peak before the latest reduction.
Gemini said the layoffs were necessary to maintain focus and execution speed as it concentrates on fewer products and fewer markets.
A signal for the prediction market race
Gemini’s decision comes amid intensifying competition in prediction markets. Platforms such as Kalshi, Coinbase and Polymarket are all racing to define how event-based trading fits into mainstream finance.
Gemini is effectively making a concentrated bet by leaving underperforming regions and reallocating capital toward prediction markets in the US.
According to the exchange, owning a regulated, high-engagement prediction platform in the US is more valuable than operating a global crypto exchange with diluted focus.
Whether that bet pays off will depend on adoption, liquidity, and regulatory durability. However, Gemini has made its position clear. The future it is building focuses heavily on trading outcomes.
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