Contrary to perceptions that prediction markets are merely sports betting in disguise, a new report claims that year-to-date aggregate growth across the two main platforms in the U.S. is being led by non-sports categories.
Findings in Prediction Markets: The Next Frontier of Financial Markets, published by Keyrock and Dune, paint a picture of the future of prediction markets.
The report monitored the period from January 2024 to November 2025. Over that period, Polymarket processed 95 million total trades, while Kalshi recorded 74 million. Whereas sports accounted for about 85% of Kalshi’s notional volume, Polymarket had a more evenly distributed array of exchanges, with sports (39%), politics (34%), and crypto (18%) together driving more than 90% of its notional volume activity,” per the report.
At first, it appears as if sports are the heart of prediction market volume. But the report says sports’ constant activity (when ISN’T there a game going on?) will ensure it remains the “flow engine” of prediction markets, while politics and economics will become its “capital engine.”
The report notes how Kalshi has functioned as a U.S.-regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In contrast, Polymarket spent years not operating in the U.S., after the CFTC accused it of operating without a license (Polymarket acquired QCX LLX and QC Clearing early in 2025, allowing it a regulatory foothold in the market; it beta-launched its new platform in mid-November, per Yahoo Finance).
Political markets are the bread and butter
The political markets, specifically exchanges about President Donald Trump, led sports in open interest, with politics outpacing sports by more than 400%.
Kalshi was able to connect with sports fans in the U.S., whereas Polymarket appealed to users who “value onchain anonymity and are interested in politics.” And sports traders “tend to wager smaller amounts” at a more frequent rate, which the report claims “naturally inflates volumes.” Whereas politics-focused traders participate less often, as there are fewer political events, but when they do, their positions are much larger.
“On Kalshi, Politics, Elections, and Economics combined hold 2.5x the open interest of Sports, while on Polymarket, Politics outpaced Sports by 400% in 2025,” claims the report.
The report also notes that users across Kalshi and Polymarket engaged more with non-sports categories over the past year. The Economics category grew 905% to $112 million in combined monthly notional volumes, while the Tech & Science categories rose 1637% to $123 million.
Politics remains the largest prediction-market category, and while its notional volume YTD is only up 43%, that still amounts to $1.2 billion. That 2025 was an off-year for U.S. politics may explain the slower growth rate compared to the other categories. Still, the report says the data suggest politics will be a “cyclical driver” for prediction markets in the future.
This isn’t to say that there is no room for sports in the prediction market. Polymarket became the official prediction market partner of the UFC through a multi-year agreement with TKO Group. The report also noted that Underdog integrated Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CNDA)-powered sports markets alongside its fantasy and wagering products, marking the first time a major sports gaming operator incorporated prediction markets into its core experience.
Ultimately, prediction markets are not sportsbooks. “On any given day, more resting capital sits in major categories outside of sports,” reads the report, “which makes the underlying user base look very different from what a sportsbook model would suggest.”
