Latest News
CZ Says IPOs Will Move On-Chain, Have They Not Already?
Binance’s Changpeng Zhao predicted IPOs will move on-chain. However, this is pointing to a shift that’s already underway industry wide. Experts argue synthetic and wrapped products won’t carry the industry forward; real issuance will happen on-chain from day one.
CFTC
CME Stops Adding Sports and Awards Futures, Letting Existing Markets Run Off
CME is ending new expiries for its sports and cultural event-contract swaps, including contracts tied to sports, the Oscars and the Grammys. Existing positions will continue trading and clearing through expiration, but once those contracts run off, CME’s own prediction-market experiment will effectively go dark unless it files another rule change.
Regulation and Policy
Kalshi Certifies Gold and Silver Perpetual Contracts While Lawsuit Challenging Offerings Remains Pending
Kalshi’s self-certification of gold and silver perps raises the stakes of The CME Group’s legal challenge to the CFTC’s regulation of futures.
Regulation and Policy
New Jersey Asks Supreme Court to Decide Whether Prediction Markets Are Sportsbooks or Swaps
New Jersey has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to review its loss to Kalshi, giving the justices a direct chance to resolve the growing split over whether sports-event contracts are federally regulated derivatives or state-regulated gambling.
The petition comes days after the Ninth Circuit ruled for Nevada and against Kalshi, the opposite conclusion reached by the Third Circuit in New Jersey.
Weekly Volume Report
Fed Rate Hike Nears Certainty After Hotter Inflation Report
Prediction markets sharply increased the odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike after core inflation rose more than expected on Sept. 11. DeFi Rate’s cross-venue probability for a 25-basis-point increase climbed from 63.7% to 81.3% in 24 hours, while total volume across the decision reached $192.6 million on Kalshi and Polymarket Global. Polymarket US also self-certified contracts for the meeting Friday.
Political Reports
- Michigan Senate Markets Give El-Sayed Significant Edge as Polling Shows a Dead Heat
- Kalshi Sees Democrats Holding New Hampshire Senate Seat Despite Toss-Up Talk
- Texas Senate Race Continues To Trade Like a Toss-Up as Paxton Holds a Thin Kalshi Edge
- Over $106M Has Been Traded on LA’s Mayor Race as Bass Holds a Narrowing Edge
- AOC and Ossoff Overtake Newsom in 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Prediction Markets as Money Floods In
- Prediction Markets Call Trump Candidate Wins In South Carolina and Oklahoma Runoffs, Margins Show His Grip Still Has Limits
Promo News
Polymarket Promo Code Rate: $50 Bonus for Cowboys vs. Giants SNF
It’s an NFC East battle to open this season’s Sunday Night Football slate. Polymarket pricing leans toward the Cowboys getting the win over the Giants in a game that’s set to attract significant trading volume.
Promo News
NFL Win Totals 2026: What Prediction Markets Say About All 32 Teams
The Super Bowl favorite Rams and several other contenders are expected to battle for double digit wins, while others could have their work cut out to finish the season above .500.
Promo News
NFL Again Demands Prediction Markets Pull ‘Objectionable’ Bets Ahead of Kickoff
The league says contracts on player injuries, officiating, broadcast mentions and easily manipulated plays remain available months after its first warning. Its latest letter, sent days before the 2026 season begins, sharpens the pressure on Kalshi, Polymarket and other federally regulated exchanges, and notably calls their products “bets.”